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Tropical Depression SIX-E


ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT THU JUL 29 2004
 
THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS NOT BECOME ANY BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE
PAST FEW HOURS AND ALTHOUGH THE CENTER IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE...IT
APPEARS TO BE NEAR THE NORTHEASTERN EDGE OF THE CONVECTION.  DVORAK
T-NUMBERS SUGGEST THAT WINDS ARE STILL ABOUT 25 KNOTS.  THE
DEPRESSION IS BEING SHEARED BY NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH
AN UPPER-LEVEL HIGH TO THE EAST OF HURRICANE DARBY.  NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL REMAIN IN AN
ENVIRONMENT OF MODERATE SHEAR OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  THEREFORE
ONLY SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...AND IN ABOUT 48 HOURS THE
SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO BE WEAKENING AS IT REACHES COOLER WATERS.

THE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY MOVING ON A SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF DUE
WESTWARD TRACK...HOWEVER THIS DIRECTION OF MOTION IS NOT EXPECTED
TO PERSIST.  GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE MID-LEVEL
RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE WILL WEAKEN SOMEWHAT DURING THE
FORECAST PERIOD.  THEREFORE A WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION
IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  AT THIS TIME...IT IS EXPECTED
THAT THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL REMAIN FAR ENOUGH TO THE EAST OF
DARBY SO THAT ANY SIGNIFICANT INTERACTION WILL NOT OCCUR.

FORECASTER PASCH/AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      29/1500Z 16.7N 114.8W    25 KT
 12HR VT     30/0000Z 16.5N 116.1W    30 KT
 24HR VT     30/1200Z 16.2N 118.0W    35 KT
 36HR VT     31/0000Z 16.5N 120.0W    40 KT
 48HR VT     31/1200Z 16.5N 122.0W    35 KT
 72HR VT     01/1200Z 17.0N 126.0W    30 KT...DISSIPATING
 96HR VT     02/1200Z 17.5N 130.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     03/1200Z 18.5N 135.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
$$
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Page last modified: Thursday, 29-Jul-2004 14:32:29 UTC