ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 AM PDT THU JUL 29 2004 THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS NOT BECOME ANY BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS AND ALTHOUGH THE CENTER IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE...IT APPEARS TO BE NEAR THE NORTHEASTERN EDGE OF THE CONVECTION. DVORAK T-NUMBERS SUGGEST THAT WINDS ARE STILL ABOUT 25 KNOTS. THE DEPRESSION IS BEING SHEARED BY NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL HIGH TO THE EAST OF HURRICANE DARBY. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL REMAIN IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF MODERATE SHEAR OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THEREFORE ONLY SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...AND IN ABOUT 48 HOURS THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO BE WEAKENING AS IT REACHES COOLER WATERS. THE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY MOVING ON A SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF DUE WESTWARD TRACK...HOWEVER THIS DIRECTION OF MOTION IS NOT EXPECTED TO PERSIST. GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE WILL WEAKEN SOMEWHAT DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. THEREFORE A WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AT THIS TIME...IT IS EXPECTED THAT THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL REMAIN FAR ENOUGH TO THE EAST OF DARBY SO THAT ANY SIGNIFICANT INTERACTION WILL NOT OCCUR. FORECASTER PASCH/AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 29/1500Z 16.7N 114.8W 25 KT 12HR VT 30/0000Z 16.5N 116.1W 30 KT 24HR VT 30/1200Z 16.2N 118.0W 35 KT 36HR VT 31/0000Z 16.5N 120.0W 40 KT 48HR VT 31/1200Z 16.5N 122.0W 35 KT 72HR VT 01/1200Z 17.0N 126.0W 30 KT...DISSIPATING 96HR VT 02/1200Z 17.5N 130.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 03/1200Z 18.5N 135.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Thursday, 29-Jul-2004 14:32:29 UTC