Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Cent
er on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Hurricane DARBY


ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION DARBY DISCUSSION NUMBER  20
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT SAT JUL 31 2004
 
DARBY IS A WEAKENING SWIRL OF LOW CLOUD THAT IS CURRENTLY VOID OF
CENTRAL CONVECTION.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 25 KT FROM
ALL AGENCIES.  HOWEVER...IN DEFERENCE TO THE QUIKSCAT DATA
MENTIONED IN THE LAST ADVISORY AND WINDS FROM A 0603Z SSM/I
OVERPASS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE 30 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 275/13.  DARBY IS SOUTH OF A STRONG LOW/MID
LEVEL RIDGE...WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE TO STEER THE SYSTEM GENERALLY
WESTWARD DURING THE REMAINDER OF ITS LIFE.  THE FORECAST TRACK IS
AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE FOR THE FIRST 48 HR...THEN
SHIFTED WEST OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE FROM 48-96 HR.

WHILE DARBY SHOULD BE MOVING OVER WARMER WATER FROM HERE ON...
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND LARGE SCALE MODELS INDICATE STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR DEVELOPING OVER THE CYCLONE THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THIS SHOULD CONTINUE THE CURRENT WEAKENING
TREND...WITH DARBY BECOMING A REMNANT LOW IN 36-48 HR AND WEAKENING
TO AN EASTERLY WAVE AFTER 96 HR.  DARBY MAY DISSIPATE EVEN FASTER
THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.

FORECASTER BEVEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      31/1500Z 18.9N 138.0W    30 KT
 12HR VT     01/0000Z 19.0N 140.1W    25 KT
 24HR VT     01/1200Z 19.0N 143.3W    25 KT
 36HR VT     02/0000Z 19.0N 146.6W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 48HR VT     02/1200Z 19.0N 149.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     03/1200Z 19.5N 154.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     04/1200Z 20.5N 158.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     05/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
 
$$
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Saturday, 31-Jul-2004 14:42:29 UTC