ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION DARBY DISCUSSION NUMBER 20 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 AM PDT SAT JUL 31 2004 DARBY IS A WEAKENING SWIRL OF LOW CLOUD THAT IS CURRENTLY VOID OF CENTRAL CONVECTION. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 25 KT FROM ALL AGENCIES. HOWEVER...IN DEFERENCE TO THE QUIKSCAT DATA MENTIONED IN THE LAST ADVISORY AND WINDS FROM A 0603Z SSM/I OVERPASS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE 30 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 275/13. DARBY IS SOUTH OF A STRONG LOW/MID LEVEL RIDGE...WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE TO STEER THE SYSTEM GENERALLY WESTWARD DURING THE REMAINDER OF ITS LIFE. THE FORECAST TRACK IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE FOR THE FIRST 48 HR...THEN SHIFTED WEST OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE FROM 48-96 HR. WHILE DARBY SHOULD BE MOVING OVER WARMER WATER FROM HERE ON... SATELLITE IMAGERY AND LARGE SCALE MODELS INDICATE STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR DEVELOPING OVER THE CYCLONE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE THE CURRENT WEAKENING TREND...WITH DARBY BECOMING A REMNANT LOW IN 36-48 HR AND WEAKENING TO AN EASTERLY WAVE AFTER 96 HR. DARBY MAY DISSIPATE EVEN FASTER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. FORECASTER BEVEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 31/1500Z 18.9N 138.0W 30 KT 12HR VT 01/0000Z 19.0N 140.1W 25 KT 24HR VT 01/1200Z 19.0N 143.3W 25 KT 36HR VT 02/0000Z 19.0N 146.6W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 48HR VT 02/1200Z 19.0N 149.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 03/1200Z 19.5N 154.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 04/1200Z 20.5N 158.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 05/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ NNNN
Alternate Formats
About Alternates -
E-Mail Advisories -
RSS Feeds
Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory -
Past Advisories -
About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
Latest Products -
About Marine Products
Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery -
US Weather Radar -
Aircraft Recon -
Local Data Archive -
Forecast Verification -
Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense
Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names
Wind Scale -
Prepare -
Climatology -
NHC Glossary -
NHC Acronyms -
Frequently Asked Questions -
AOML Hurricane-Research Division
About Us
About NHC -
Mission/Vision -
Other NCEP Centers -
NHC Staff -
Visitor Information -
NHC Library
NOAA/
National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Privacy Policy
Credits
About Us
Glossary
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Saturday, 31-Jul-2004 14:42:29 UTC