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Hurricane DARBY


ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE DARBY DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT WED JUL 28 2004
 
IT APPEARS THAT DARBY HAS AN EYE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE DEEP
CONVECTION. THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW CONTINUES TO BE WELL-
ESTABLISHED. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES SUGGEST THAT THE WINDS
HAVE INCREASED TO 75 KNOTS. THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR TWO BUT DARBY SHOULD BEGIN REACHING COOLER WATERS
IN ABOUT 36 HOURS. THEREFORE...THE HURRICANE HAS A DAY OR SO TO
INTENSIFY BEFORE A GRADUAL WEAKENING BEGINS. 

THE HURRICANE CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST ABOUT 13
KNOTS STEERED BY THE FLOW AROUND A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. A WEAKENESS
LOCATED TO THE WEST OF THE RIDGE WILL ALLOW DARBY TO CONTINUE ON
THIS GENERAL TRACK. HOWEVER...AS DARBY WEAKENS...IT SHOULD BEGIN TO
BE STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO
TURN MORE TO THE WEST IN 4 AND 5 DAYS.  DURING THE FIRST 2 TO 3
DAYS WHEN DARBY IS EXPECTED TO BE A STRONG SYSTEM...THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. THERAFTER
...AS WEAKENING BEGINS...THE FORECAST TRACK IS CLOSER TO BAMM
MODEL.
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      28/1500Z 15.5N 123.4W    75 KT
 12HR VT     29/0000Z 16.2N 125.2W    80 KT
 24HR VT     29/1200Z 17.0N 127.5W    75 KT
 36HR VT     30/0000Z 17.5N 130.0W    70 KT
 48HR VT     30/1200Z 18.0N 132.5W    60 KT
 72HR VT     31/1200Z 18.5N 136.5W    50 KT
 96HR VT     01/1200Z 18.5N 140.5W    40 KT
120HR VT     02/1200Z 18.5N 145.0W    35 KT
 
 
$$
NNNN


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Page last modified: Wednesday, 28-Jul-2004 14:32:27 UTC