ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE DARBY DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 AM PDT WED JUL 28 2004 IT APPEARS THAT DARBY HAS AN EYE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE DEEP CONVECTION. THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW CONTINUES TO BE WELL- ESTABLISHED. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES SUGGEST THAT THE WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 75 KNOTS. THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO BUT DARBY SHOULD BEGIN REACHING COOLER WATERS IN ABOUT 36 HOURS. THEREFORE...THE HURRICANE HAS A DAY OR SO TO INTENSIFY BEFORE A GRADUAL WEAKENING BEGINS. THE HURRICANE CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST ABOUT 13 KNOTS STEERED BY THE FLOW AROUND A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. A WEAKENESS LOCATED TO THE WEST OF THE RIDGE WILL ALLOW DARBY TO CONTINUE ON THIS GENERAL TRACK. HOWEVER...AS DARBY WEAKENS...IT SHOULD BEGIN TO BE STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO TURN MORE TO THE WEST IN 4 AND 5 DAYS. DURING THE FIRST 2 TO 3 DAYS WHEN DARBY IS EXPECTED TO BE A STRONG SYSTEM...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. THERAFTER ...AS WEAKENING BEGINS...THE FORECAST TRACK IS CLOSER TO BAMM MODEL. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 28/1500Z 15.5N 123.4W 75 KT 12HR VT 29/0000Z 16.2N 125.2W 80 KT 24HR VT 29/1200Z 17.0N 127.5W 75 KT 36HR VT 30/0000Z 17.5N 130.0W 70 KT 48HR VT 30/1200Z 18.0N 132.5W 60 KT 72HR VT 31/1200Z 18.5N 136.5W 50 KT 96HR VT 01/1200Z 18.5N 140.5W 40 KT 120HR VT 02/1200Z 18.5N 145.0W 35 KT $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Wednesday, 28-Jul-2004 14:32:27 UTC