Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Cent
er on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Hurricane CELIA


ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT FRI JUL 23 2004
 
A BAND OF DEEP CONVECTION WITH TOPS AS COLD -80C HAS REDEVELOPED
MORE THAN HALF WAY AROUND THE NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE DURING THE PAST
FIVE HOURS. THERFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BEING MAINTAINED AT
35 KT BASED ON A CONSENSUS T2.5...OR 35 KT...CURRENT SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM ALL THREE AGENCIES AND THE IMPROVED BANDING
STRUCTURE THAT HAS DEVELOPED SINCE THE 18Z INTENSITY ESTIMATES.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 270/08. WHILE THE TRACK OF CELIA OVER THE PAST
42 HOURS HAS REMAINED ON THE EXTREME SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE NHC
MODEL GUIDANCE...THE MAJORITY OF THE MODELS STILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
CELIA WEST-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...
WHICH SEEMS HIGHLY UNLIKELY. AS CELIA MOVES OVER PROGRESSIVELY
COLDER WATER...THE VERTICAL STRUCTURE SHOULD DECREASE AND THE
PRIMARY STEERING FLOW SHOULD BE EASTERLY TRADEWIND FLOW ON THE
SOUTH SIDE OF THE LARGE PACIFIC LOW-LEVEL RIDGE. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST TRACK IS JUST AN EXTENSION OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND IS
AGAIN CLOSE TO THE GFS AND GFDN SOLUTIONS.
 
THE ENTRAINMENT OF COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS AND WEAKENING HAS
BEEN INTERRUPTED. HOWEVER...BY 48 HOURS...THE CYCLONE CENTER IS
FORECAST TO PASS OVER SUB-25C SST WATER WHICH SHOULD BRING ABOUT
STEADY WEAKENING. UNFORTUNATELY...UNTIL THAT TIME...CELIA MAY
CONTINUE TO HUG THE EAST-WEST INSTABILITY GRADIENT AND GENERATE AT
LEAST INTERMITTENT CONVECTION AROUND THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. THE
SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL HAS CONTINUED ITS PREVIOUS TREND OF KEEPING
CELIA BETWEEN 35-40 KT THROUGH 72 HOURS BEFORE SLOWLY WEAKENING THE
CYCLONE AFTER THAT. GIVEN THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN QUITE FAVORABLE...WITH VERTICAL SHEAR LESS THAN
5 KT FOR THE NEXT 60 HOURS...THE FORECAST INTENSITY HAS BEEN HELD
UP SLIGHTLY FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
 
FORECASTER STEWART
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      23/2100Z 16.1N 126.5W    35 KT
 12HR VT     24/0600Z 16.2N 127.9W    35 KT
 24HR VT     24/1800Z 16.3N 129.8W    30 KT
 36HR VT     25/0600Z 16.4N 131.6W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 48HR VT     25/1800Z 16.4N 133.8W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     26/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
 
$$
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Friday, 23-Jul-2004 20:42:25 UTC