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Hurricane CELIA (Text)

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TROPICAL STORM CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT FRI JUL 23 2004
 
A BAND OF DEEP CONVECTION WITH TOPS AS COLD -80C HAS REDEVELOPED
MORE THAN HALF WAY AROUND THE NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE DURING THE PAST
FIVE HOURS. THERFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BEING MAINTAINED AT
35 KT BASED ON A CONSENSUS T2.5...OR 35 KT...CURRENT SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM ALL THREE AGENCIES AND THE IMPROVED BANDING
STRUCTURE THAT HAS DEVELOPED SINCE THE 18Z INTENSITY ESTIMATES.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 270/08. WHILE THE TRACK OF CELIA OVER THE PAST
42 HOURS HAS REMAINED ON THE EXTREME SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE NHC
MODEL GUIDANCE...THE MAJORITY OF THE MODELS STILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
CELIA WEST-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...
WHICH SEEMS HIGHLY UNLIKELY. AS CELIA MOVES OVER PROGRESSIVELY
COLDER WATER...THE VERTICAL STRUCTURE SHOULD DECREASE AND THE
PRIMARY STEERING FLOW SHOULD BE EASTERLY TRADEWIND FLOW ON THE
SOUTH SIDE OF THE LARGE PACIFIC LOW-LEVEL RIDGE. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST TRACK IS JUST AN EXTENSION OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND IS
AGAIN CLOSE TO THE GFS AND GFDN SOLUTIONS.
 
THE ENTRAINMENT OF COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS AND WEAKENING HAS
BEEN INTERRUPTED. HOWEVER...BY 48 HOURS...THE CYCLONE CENTER IS
FORECAST TO PASS OVER SUB-25C SST WATER WHICH SHOULD BRING ABOUT
STEADY WEAKENING. UNFORTUNATELY...UNTIL THAT TIME...CELIA MAY
CONTINUE TO HUG THE EAST-WEST INSTABILITY GRADIENT AND GENERATE AT
LEAST INTERMITTENT CONVECTION AROUND THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. THE
SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL HAS CONTINUED ITS PREVIOUS TREND OF KEEPING
CELIA BETWEEN 35-40 KT THROUGH 72 HOURS BEFORE SLOWLY WEAKENING THE
CYCLONE AFTER THAT. GIVEN THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN QUITE FAVORABLE...WITH VERTICAL SHEAR LESS THAN
5 KT FOR THE NEXT 60 HOURS...THE FORECAST INTENSITY HAS BEEN HELD
UP SLIGHTLY FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
 
FORECASTER STEWART
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      23/2100Z 16.1N 126.5W    35 KT
 12HR VT     24/0600Z 16.2N 127.9W    35 KT
 24HR VT     24/1800Z 16.3N 129.8W    30 KT
 36HR VT     25/0600Z 16.4N 131.6W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 48HR VT     25/1800Z 16.4N 133.8W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     26/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
 
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