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Hurricane CELIA


ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT THU JUL 22 2004
 
VIRTUALLY ALL THE DEEP CONVECTION WITH CELIA HAS EVAPORATED.  THE
WINDS ARE CLEARLY DECREASING...ALTHOUGH IT IS HARD TO ESTIMATE JUST
HOW QUICKLY.  THE LATEST DVORAK T/CI NUMBERS...HELD UP BY
CONSTRAINTS...ARE 3.0/4.0.  GIVEN THE SYSTEM IS OVER 26C WATER IN
AN INCREASINGLY STABLE ENVIRONMENT...THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
ESTIMATE WILL BE BASED ON THE T NUMBER.  WATER TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY COOL UNDER THE CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...SO A CONTINUED DECAY IS FORECAST.  

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/7...ALTHOUGH PERHAPS A SHADE
FASTER OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS.  CELIA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WESTWARD
WITH A SHALLOW LAYER FLOW AND PICK UP SOME FORWARD SPEED OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE DAYS BEFORE THE CIRCULATION DISSIPATES.
 
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      22/2100Z 16.3N 123.3W    45 KT
 12HR VT     23/0600Z 16.4N 124.4W    35 KT
 24HR VT     23/1800Z 16.5N 126.2W    30 KT...DISSIPATING
 36HR VT     24/0600Z 16.5N 128.2W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 48HR VT     24/1800Z 16.5N 130.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     25/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
 
$$
NNNN


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Page last modified: Thursday, 22-Jul-2004 20:52:25 UTC