ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 17 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 PM PDT THU JUL 22 2004 VIRTUALLY ALL THE DEEP CONVECTION WITH CELIA HAS EVAPORATED. THE WINDS ARE CLEARLY DECREASING...ALTHOUGH IT IS HARD TO ESTIMATE JUST HOW QUICKLY. THE LATEST DVORAK T/CI NUMBERS...HELD UP BY CONSTRAINTS...ARE 3.0/4.0. GIVEN THE SYSTEM IS OVER 26C WATER IN AN INCREASINGLY STABLE ENVIRONMENT...THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE WILL BE BASED ON THE T NUMBER. WATER TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY COOL UNDER THE CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...SO A CONTINUED DECAY IS FORECAST. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/7...ALTHOUGH PERHAPS A SHADE FASTER OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. CELIA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WESTWARD WITH A SHALLOW LAYER FLOW AND PICK UP SOME FORWARD SPEED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS BEFORE THE CIRCULATION DISSIPATES. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 22/2100Z 16.3N 123.3W 45 KT 12HR VT 23/0600Z 16.4N 124.4W 35 KT 24HR VT 23/1800Z 16.5N 126.2W 30 KT...DISSIPATING 36HR VT 24/0600Z 16.5N 128.2W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 24/1800Z 16.5N 130.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 25/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Thursday, 22-Jul-2004 20:52:25 UTC