Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Center on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
Subscribe the National Hurricane Center on YouTube Read the National Hurricane Center Inside the Eye blog on WordPress
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Tropical Storm CELIA


ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT WED JUL 21 2004
 
18Z DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB WERE 65 KT...WITH
55 KT FROM AFWA.  SINCE THAT TIME...HOWEVER...THE CONVECTIVE
PATTERN HAS BECOME A LITTLE RAGGED.  THE LATEST QUIKSCAT PASS AT
1340Z INDICATED THAT CELIA'S PEAK WINDS WERE AT LEAST 50 KT AT THAT
TIME.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 60 KT FOR THIS
ADVISORY.  THE EARLIER OUTFLOW RESTRICTION IN THE NORTHEAST
QUADRANT SEEMS TO HAVE DISSIPATED.  CELIA COULD REACH HURRICANE
STRENGTH DURING THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS...BUT THE OPPORTUNITY FOR
FURTHER STRENGTHENING IS RUNNING OUT AS SSTS UNDER THE CYCLONE ARE
BEGINNING TO DECREASE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR A GRADUAL
DECAY BEGINNING IN ABOUT 12 HOURS.

OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS THE MOTION HAS BEEN DUE WEST...BUT A
LONGER-TERM ESTIMATE IS 280/6.  THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN
THE FORECAST THINKING.  CELIA REMAINS SOUTH OF A WEAKNESS IN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IN THE VICINITY OF 125W LONGITUDE. SOME INCREASE
IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS CELIA MOVES
PAST THIS WEAKNESS WHILE IT WEAKENS AND BEGINS TO MOVE WITH A
SHALLOWER LAYER MEAN FLOW.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY SOUTH
OF AND FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
 
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      21/2100Z 16.3N 121.0W    60 KT
 12HR VT     22/0600Z 16.5N 122.1W    60 KT
 24HR VT     22/1800Z 16.8N 123.5W    55 KT
 36HR VT     23/0600Z 17.2N 125.3W    45 KT
 48HR VT     23/1800Z 17.5N 127.0W    35 KT
 72HR VT     24/1800Z 17.5N 131.0W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 96HR VT     25/1800Z 17.5N 135.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     26/1800Z 17.5N 139.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
 
$$
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Wednesday, 21-Jul-2004 20:42:23 UTC