ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 PM PDT WED JUL 21 2004 18Z DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB WERE 65 KT...WITH 55 KT FROM AFWA. SINCE THAT TIME...HOWEVER...THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN HAS BECOME A LITTLE RAGGED. THE LATEST QUIKSCAT PASS AT 1340Z INDICATED THAT CELIA'S PEAK WINDS WERE AT LEAST 50 KT AT THAT TIME. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 60 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE EARLIER OUTFLOW RESTRICTION IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT SEEMS TO HAVE DISSIPATED. CELIA COULD REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH DURING THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS...BUT THE OPPORTUNITY FOR FURTHER STRENGTHENING IS RUNNING OUT AS SSTS UNDER THE CYCLONE ARE BEGINNING TO DECREASE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR A GRADUAL DECAY BEGINNING IN ABOUT 12 HOURS. OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS THE MOTION HAS BEEN DUE WEST...BUT A LONGER-TERM ESTIMATE IS 280/6. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE FORECAST THINKING. CELIA REMAINS SOUTH OF A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IN THE VICINITY OF 125W LONGITUDE. SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS CELIA MOVES PAST THIS WEAKNESS WHILE IT WEAKENS AND BEGINS TO MOVE WITH A SHALLOWER LAYER MEAN FLOW. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF AND FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 21/2100Z 16.3N 121.0W 60 KT 12HR VT 22/0600Z 16.5N 122.1W 60 KT 24HR VT 22/1800Z 16.8N 123.5W 55 KT 36HR VT 23/0600Z 17.2N 125.3W 45 KT 48HR VT 23/1800Z 17.5N 127.0W 35 KT 72HR VT 24/1800Z 17.5N 131.0W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 96HR VT 25/1800Z 17.5N 135.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 26/1800Z 17.5N 139.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Wednesday, 21-Jul-2004 20:42:23 UTC