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Tropical Storm CELIA


ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT TUE JUL 20 2004
 
A QUIKSCAT PASS AT 14Z INDICATES THAT CELIA WAS NOT AS STRONG AS
PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED.  EVEN SEARCHING THE HI-RES DATA REVEALS ONLY
A COUPLE OF 40 KT VECTORS.  SINCE THAT TIME THERE HAS BEEN AN
INCREASE IN BANDED CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER...AND SO THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS ESTIMATED TO BE 45 KT.  DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES
FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 55 AND 45 KT...RESPECTIVELY.  THERE IS SOME
INDICATION THAT UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS BEGINNING TO BE RESTRICTED
IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT.  CELIA REMAINS OVER WARM WATER AND THE
SHEAR IS STILL LOW...SO THERE IS STILL SOME TIME FOR CELIA TO
STRENGTHEN.  THE SHIPS AND GFDL GUIDANCE CALLS FOR SOME
INTENSIFICATION...AND THE IMPROVED BANDING NOTED ABOVE MAY INDICATE
THAT THIS IS BEGINNING TO OCCUR. BY 36 HOURS THE CYCLONE IS
EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE 26C SST ISOTHERM...SO THE INTENSITY
FORECAST SHOWS GRADUAL WEAKENING BEGINNING AROUND THAT TIME.
 
THE MOTION HAS SETTLED DOWN AT ABOUT 285/6.  CELIA IS SOUTH OF A
WEAKNESS IN A MID-LATITUDE 500 MB RIDGE.  MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...ALTHOUGH THE GFS STILL APPEARS TO BE TOO FAST AND TOO FAR TO
THE SOUTH.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO A DYNAMICAL MODEL
CONSENSUS THAT EXCLUDES THE GFS AND IS A LITTLE TO THE NORTH OF AND
SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  
 
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      20/2100Z 15.5N 118.3W    45 KT
 12HR VT     21/0600Z 15.8N 119.3W    50 KT
 24HR VT     21/1800Z 16.4N 120.8W    55 KT
 36HR VT     22/0600Z 16.9N 122.5W    50 KT
 48HR VT     22/1800Z 17.5N 124.0W    45 KT
 72HR VT     23/1800Z 18.0N 127.5W    40 KT
 96HR VT     24/1800Z 18.5N 131.0W    35 KT
120HR VT     25/1800Z 19.0N 134.5W    30 KT
 
 
$$
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Page last modified: Tuesday, 20-Jul-2004 20:52:22 UTC