ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 PM PDT TUE JUL 20 2004 A QUIKSCAT PASS AT 14Z INDICATES THAT CELIA WAS NOT AS STRONG AS PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED. EVEN SEARCHING THE HI-RES DATA REVEALS ONLY A COUPLE OF 40 KT VECTORS. SINCE THAT TIME THERE HAS BEEN AN INCREASE IN BANDED CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER...AND SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ESTIMATED TO BE 45 KT. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 55 AND 45 KT...RESPECTIVELY. THERE IS SOME INDICATION THAT UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS BEGINNING TO BE RESTRICTED IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT. CELIA REMAINS OVER WARM WATER AND THE SHEAR IS STILL LOW...SO THERE IS STILL SOME TIME FOR CELIA TO STRENGTHEN. THE SHIPS AND GFDL GUIDANCE CALLS FOR SOME INTENSIFICATION...AND THE IMPROVED BANDING NOTED ABOVE MAY INDICATE THAT THIS IS BEGINNING TO OCCUR. BY 36 HOURS THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE 26C SST ISOTHERM...SO THE INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS GRADUAL WEAKENING BEGINNING AROUND THAT TIME. THE MOTION HAS SETTLED DOWN AT ABOUT 285/6. CELIA IS SOUTH OF A WEAKNESS IN A MID-LATITUDE 500 MB RIDGE. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...ALTHOUGH THE GFS STILL APPEARS TO BE TOO FAST AND TOO FAR TO THE SOUTH. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO A DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS THAT EXCLUDES THE GFS AND IS A LITTLE TO THE NORTH OF AND SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 20/2100Z 15.5N 118.3W 45 KT 12HR VT 21/0600Z 15.8N 119.3W 50 KT 24HR VT 21/1800Z 16.4N 120.8W 55 KT 36HR VT 22/0600Z 16.9N 122.5W 50 KT 48HR VT 22/1800Z 17.5N 124.0W 45 KT 72HR VT 23/1800Z 18.0N 127.5W 40 KT 96HR VT 24/1800Z 18.5N 131.0W 35 KT 120HR VT 25/1800Z 19.0N 134.5W 30 KT $$ NNNN
Alternate Formats
About Alternates -
E-Mail Advisories -
RSS Feeds
Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory -
Past Advisories -
About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
Latest Products -
About Marine Products
Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery -
US Weather Radar -
Aircraft Recon -
Local Data Archive -
Forecast Verification -
Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense
Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names
Wind Scale -
Prepare -
Climatology -
NHC Glossary -
NHC Acronyms -
Frequently Asked Questions -
AOML Hurricane-Research Division
About Us
About NHC -
Mission/Vision -
Other NCEP Centers -
NHC Staff -
Visitor Information -
NHC Library
NOAA/
National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Privacy Policy
Credits
About Us
Glossary
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Tuesday, 20-Jul-2004 20:52:22 UTC