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Tropical Storm CELIA


ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT MON JUL 19 2004
 
DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND SAB AND AIR FORCE GLOBAL ARE
T3.5...T3.0...T3.0 RESPECTIVELY WITH SAB LEANING TOWARD A 3.5. 
BASED ON THESE ESTIMATES THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 50
KTS.  CELIA IS A SMALL CYCLONE AND THE RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS HAS
BEEN REDUCED TO 20 NMI FROM 30 NMI BASED UPON SATELLITE
MEASUREMENTS.  THE ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW CONTINUES IN ALL QUADRANTS.  
NOW...BOTH THE SHIPS AND GFDL GUIDANCE QUICKLY BRING BRING CELIA TO
HURRICANE STRENGTH IN 12 TO 24 HOURS.  BECAUSE OF THE LIMITED
AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION AND THE STABLE AIR MASS INTO WHICH CELIA IS
HEADED...THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY LESS
AGGRESSIVE.  SSTS WILL BE DECREASING UNDER THE CYCLONE AFTER 48
HOURS AND SO A SLOW DECAY IS INDICATED LATER IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD.
 
THE MOTION CONTINUES TO SLOW AND IS NOW 285/7.  CELIA IS CURRENTLY
SOUTH OF A SLIGHT WEAKNESS IN THE MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE...BUT
ENOUGH RIDGING IS FORECAST BY ALL THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE TO TAKE
THE CYCLONE GENERALLY WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  MODEL
GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY WELL CLUSTERED.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A
LITTLE NORTH AND SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND LEANS
HEAVILY ON THE GUNS CONSENSUS.
 
FORECASTER JARVINEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      20/0300Z 15.1N 116.5W    50 KT
 12HR VT     20/1200Z 15.4N 117.6W    55 KT
 24HR VT     21/0000Z 15.9N 119.5W    60 KT
 36HR VT     21/1200Z 16.4N 121.3W    60 KT
 48HR VT     22/0000Z 16.6N 123.2W    55 KT
 72HR VT     23/0000Z 17.3N 126.9W    50 KT
 96HR VT     24/0000Z 17.6N 130.8W    45 KT
120HR VT     25/0000Z 18.0N 134.0W    40 KT
 
 
$$
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Page last modified: Tuesday, 20-Jul-2004 02:32:22 UTC