ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 PM PDT MON JUL 19 2004 DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND SAB AND AIR FORCE GLOBAL ARE T3.5...T3.0...T3.0 RESPECTIVELY WITH SAB LEANING TOWARD A 3.5. BASED ON THESE ESTIMATES THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 50 KTS. CELIA IS A SMALL CYCLONE AND THE RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS HAS BEEN REDUCED TO 20 NMI FROM 30 NMI BASED UPON SATELLITE MEASUREMENTS. THE ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW CONTINUES IN ALL QUADRANTS. NOW...BOTH THE SHIPS AND GFDL GUIDANCE QUICKLY BRING BRING CELIA TO HURRICANE STRENGTH IN 12 TO 24 HOURS. BECAUSE OF THE LIMITED AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION AND THE STABLE AIR MASS INTO WHICH CELIA IS HEADED...THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY LESS AGGRESSIVE. SSTS WILL BE DECREASING UNDER THE CYCLONE AFTER 48 HOURS AND SO A SLOW DECAY IS INDICATED LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE MOTION CONTINUES TO SLOW AND IS NOW 285/7. CELIA IS CURRENTLY SOUTH OF A SLIGHT WEAKNESS IN THE MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE...BUT ENOUGH RIDGING IS FORECAST BY ALL THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE TO TAKE THE CYCLONE GENERALLY WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. MODEL GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY WELL CLUSTERED. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE NORTH AND SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND LEANS HEAVILY ON THE GUNS CONSENSUS. FORECASTER JARVINEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 20/0300Z 15.1N 116.5W 50 KT 12HR VT 20/1200Z 15.4N 117.6W 55 KT 24HR VT 21/0000Z 15.9N 119.5W 60 KT 36HR VT 21/1200Z 16.4N 121.3W 60 KT 48HR VT 22/0000Z 16.6N 123.2W 55 KT 72HR VT 23/0000Z 17.3N 126.9W 50 KT 96HR VT 24/0000Z 17.6N 130.8W 45 KT 120HR VT 25/0000Z 18.0N 134.0W 40 KT $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Tuesday, 20-Jul-2004 02:32:22 UTC