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Tropical Depression FOUR-E


ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT MON JUL 19 2004

LATEST DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN AT 30 KT. 
NON-RAIN-CONTAMINATED VECTORS ON A QUIKSCAT PASS FROM SEVERAL HOURS
AGO SUGGESTED MAXIMUM WINDS IN THE 25-30 KT RANGE.  THEREFORE THE
SYSTEM IS KEPT AT DEPRESSION STATUS.  DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE DEPRESSION HAD BEEN RATHER MEAGER...BUT RECENT SATELLITE
IMAGES SHOW AN INCREASE OF CONVECTION OVER THE ESTIMATED CENTER
POSITION.  UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW CONTINUES TO BE WELL-DEFINED OVER
THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM.  THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER WARM WATERS AND IN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT
FOR AT LEAST 72 HOURS.  MITIGATING FACTORS FOR STRENGTHENING COULD
BE THE SMALL SIZE OF THE CIRCULATION AND A RELATIVELY STABLE AIR
MASS...AS IMPLIED BY THE STRATOCUMULUS CLOUD ENVIRONMENT. 
DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE...I.E. THE GFDL AND GLOBAL MODELS...SHOW LITTLE
OR NO STRENGTHENING...BUT OF COURSE THESE MODELS HAVE LIMITED SKILL
IN FORECASTING INTENSITY CHANGE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR
GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION... AS IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  THIS IS A
LITTLE LESS STRENGTHENING THAN PREDICTED BY THE SHIPS GUIDANCE.

THE MOTION CONTINUES GENERALLY WESTWARD.  A MID-LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD
REMAIN ESTABLISHED TO THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...RESULTING IN A MAINLY WESTWARD TRACK DURING THE
FORECAST PERIOD.  THE CURRENT OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SOMEWHAT SLOWER
THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE...BUT FASTER THAN SHOWN BY THE LATEST
DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS...CONU.
 
FORECASTER PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      19/0900Z 14.5N 114.5W    30 KT
 12HR VT     19/1800Z 14.7N 116.1W    35 KT
 24HR VT     20/0600Z 14.9N 118.2W    40 KT
 36HR VT     20/1800Z 15.1N 120.3W    45 KT
 48HR VT     21/0600Z 15.3N 122.4W    50 KT
 72HR VT     22/0600Z 15.7N 126.5W    50 KT
 96HR VT     23/0600Z 16.0N 130.5W    50 KT
120HR VT     24/0600Z 16.0N 135.0W    50 KT
 
$$
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Page last modified: Monday, 19-Jul-2004 08:32:23 UTC