ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 AM PDT MON JUL 19 2004 LATEST DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN AT 30 KT. NON-RAIN-CONTAMINATED VECTORS ON A QUIKSCAT PASS FROM SEVERAL HOURS AGO SUGGESTED MAXIMUM WINDS IN THE 25-30 KT RANGE. THEREFORE THE SYSTEM IS KEPT AT DEPRESSION STATUS. DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPRESSION HAD BEEN RATHER MEAGER...BUT RECENT SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW AN INCREASE OF CONVECTION OVER THE ESTIMATED CENTER POSITION. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW CONTINUES TO BE WELL-DEFINED OVER THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER WARM WATERS AND IN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT FOR AT LEAST 72 HOURS. MITIGATING FACTORS FOR STRENGTHENING COULD BE THE SMALL SIZE OF THE CIRCULATION AND A RELATIVELY STABLE AIR MASS...AS IMPLIED BY THE STRATOCUMULUS CLOUD ENVIRONMENT. DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE...I.E. THE GFDL AND GLOBAL MODELS...SHOW LITTLE OR NO STRENGTHENING...BUT OF COURSE THESE MODELS HAVE LIMITED SKILL IN FORECASTING INTENSITY CHANGE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION... AS IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THIS IS A LITTLE LESS STRENGTHENING THAN PREDICTED BY THE SHIPS GUIDANCE. THE MOTION CONTINUES GENERALLY WESTWARD. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD REMAIN ESTABLISHED TO THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...RESULTING IN A MAINLY WESTWARD TRACK DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE CURRENT OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SOMEWHAT SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE...BUT FASTER THAN SHOWN BY THE LATEST DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS...CONU. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 19/0900Z 14.5N 114.5W 30 KT 12HR VT 19/1800Z 14.7N 116.1W 35 KT 24HR VT 20/0600Z 14.9N 118.2W 40 KT 36HR VT 20/1800Z 15.1N 120.3W 45 KT 48HR VT 21/0600Z 15.3N 122.4W 50 KT 72HR VT 22/0600Z 15.7N 126.5W 50 KT 96HR VT 23/0600Z 16.0N 130.5W 50 KT 120HR VT 24/0600Z 16.0N 135.0W 50 KT $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 19-Jul-2004 08:32:23 UTC