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Tropical Storm BLAS


ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION BLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT WED JUL 14 2004
 
BLAS IS NOW A LARGE SWIRL OF LOW/MID LEVEL CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED
PATCHES OF CONVECTION NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER AND IN AN OUTER BAND
WELL TO THE EAST.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KT IS BASED ON
EXTRAPOLATION OF A 1320Z QUIKSCAT OVERPASS AND A 1441Z TRMM
OVERPASS...ALONG WITH 25 KT SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES.  BLAS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN OVER COLD SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES...
BECOMING A NON-CONVECTIVE LOW IN 12-24 HR AND COMPLETELY
DISSIPATING BY 96 HR.

THE CYCLONE HAS SLOWED AND TURNED TO THE LEFT OVER THE PAST 6 HR AND
THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 285/12.  A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST
WITH FURTHER DECELERATION IS LIKELY BEFORE BLAS DISSIPATES...AS THE
LOW-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH BECOMES THE DOMINANT STEERING FEATURE.

A 12 FT SEAS RADII WILL BE INCLUDED FOR THIS ADVISORY.
 
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      14/2100Z 22.6N 118.4W    30 KT
 12HR VT     15/0600Z 23.1N 120.1W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 24HR VT     15/1800Z 23.6N 122.3W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 36HR VT     16/0600Z 23.9N 124.1W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 48HR VT     16/1800Z 24.0N 125.9W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     17/1800Z 24.0N 128.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     18/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
NNNN


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Page last modified: Wednesday, 14-Jul-2004 20:32:21 UTC