ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION BLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 PM PDT WED JUL 14 2004 BLAS IS NOW A LARGE SWIRL OF LOW/MID LEVEL CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED PATCHES OF CONVECTION NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER AND IN AN OUTER BAND WELL TO THE EAST. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KT IS BASED ON EXTRAPOLATION OF A 1320Z QUIKSCAT OVERPASS AND A 1441Z TRMM OVERPASS...ALONG WITH 25 KT SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES. BLAS SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN OVER COLD SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES... BECOMING A NON-CONVECTIVE LOW IN 12-24 HR AND COMPLETELY DISSIPATING BY 96 HR. THE CYCLONE HAS SLOWED AND TURNED TO THE LEFT OVER THE PAST 6 HR AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 285/12. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST WITH FURTHER DECELERATION IS LIKELY BEFORE BLAS DISSIPATES...AS THE LOW-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH BECOMES THE DOMINANT STEERING FEATURE. A 12 FT SEAS RADII WILL BE INCLUDED FOR THIS ADVISORY. FORECASTER BEVEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 14/2100Z 22.6N 118.4W 30 KT 12HR VT 15/0600Z 23.1N 120.1W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 24HR VT 15/1800Z 23.6N 122.3W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 36HR VT 16/0600Z 23.9N 124.1W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 16/1800Z 24.0N 125.9W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 17/1800Z 24.0N 128.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 18/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Wednesday, 14-Jul-2004 20:32:21 UTC