Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Cent
er on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Tropical Storm AGATHA


ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT SAT MAY 22 2004
 
THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE
PAST FEW HOURS. DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES TO BE PRIMARILY WITHIN A
CURVED BAND TO THE WEST OF THE CENTER AND THE OUTFLOW IS
WELL-ESTABLISHED. INITIAL INTENSITY IS ESTIMATED TO BE 30 KNOTS.
BECAUSE THE SHEAR IS LOW...THE DEPRESSION HAS THE CHANCE TO REACH
TROPICAL STORM STATUS WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS BEFORE IT
ENCOUNTERS STABLE AIR AND COOL WATERS. WEAKENING SHOULD THEN BEGIN.
SHIPS MODEL BRINGS THE INTENSITY TO 37 KNOTS ONLY AND IN FACT...
BOTH GFDL AND UK MODELS DISSIPATE THE CYCLONE IN ABOUT A DAY.
 
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 7 KNOTS.
STEERING CURRENTS ARE FORECAST TO COLLAPSE IN A DAY OR TWO SO...A
VERY SLOW MOTION TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS ANTICIPATED. THERE IS
GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG GLOBAL MODELS THAT THE MOTION SHOULD BECOME
ERRATIC BEYOND 48 HOURS.
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      22/0900Z 15.3N 108.5W    30 KT
 12HR VT     22/1800Z 15.8N 109.4W    35 KT
 24HR VT     23/0600Z 16.0N 110.0W    35 KT
 36HR VT     23/1800Z 16.5N 110.5W    30 KT
 48HR VT     24/0600Z 17.0N 111.5W    30 KT
 72HR VT     25/0600Z 17.5N 112.0W    25 KT
 96HR VT     26/0600Z 17.5N 112.0W    20 KT REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     27/0600Z 17.6N 112.1W    20 KT REMNANT LOW
 
 
$$
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Friday, 02-Jul-2004 17:31:56 UTC