ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 AM PDT SAT MAY 22 2004 THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES TO BE PRIMARILY WITHIN A CURVED BAND TO THE WEST OF THE CENTER AND THE OUTFLOW IS WELL-ESTABLISHED. INITIAL INTENSITY IS ESTIMATED TO BE 30 KNOTS. BECAUSE THE SHEAR IS LOW...THE DEPRESSION HAS THE CHANCE TO REACH TROPICAL STORM STATUS WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS BEFORE IT ENCOUNTERS STABLE AIR AND COOL WATERS. WEAKENING SHOULD THEN BEGIN. SHIPS MODEL BRINGS THE INTENSITY TO 37 KNOTS ONLY AND IN FACT... BOTH GFDL AND UK MODELS DISSIPATE THE CYCLONE IN ABOUT A DAY. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 7 KNOTS. STEERING CURRENTS ARE FORECAST TO COLLAPSE IN A DAY OR TWO SO...A VERY SLOW MOTION TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS ANTICIPATED. THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG GLOBAL MODELS THAT THE MOTION SHOULD BECOME ERRATIC BEYOND 48 HOURS. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 22/0900Z 15.3N 108.5W 30 KT 12HR VT 22/1800Z 15.8N 109.4W 35 KT 24HR VT 23/0600Z 16.0N 110.0W 35 KT 36HR VT 23/1800Z 16.5N 110.5W 30 KT 48HR VT 24/0600Z 17.0N 111.5W 30 KT 72HR VT 25/0600Z 17.5N 112.0W 25 KT 96HR VT 26/0600Z 17.5N 112.0W 20 KT REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 27/0600Z 17.6N 112.1W 20 KT REMNANT LOW $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Friday, 02-Jul-2004 17:31:56 UTC