Subtropical Storm NICOLE
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SUBTROPICAL STORM NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT SUN OCT 10 2004
LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES CONVECTIVE BANDS
DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF NICOLE. HOWEVER THIS
CONVECTION IS RELATIVELY SHALLOW AND WELL REMOVED FROM THE
CENTER...SO THERE IS LITTLE INDICATION THAT THE CYCLONE IS
ACQUIRING TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. A 10Z HIRES QUIKSCAT PASS
CONTAINED 40 KNOT WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE AND THE WIND
RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED TO REFLECT THESE OBSERVATIONS.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST STILL ALLOWS FOR SOME STRENGTHENING TO OCCUR
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...BUT THE ENVIRONMENT DOES NOT APPEAR
FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE. ALTHOUGH THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS NICOLE BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL IN 36
HOURS...THE GFS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT IT COULD BECOME ABSORBED BY
A BAROCLINIC SYSTEM IN AS LITTLE AS 24 HOURS.
THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS NORTH-NORTHWEST AT 11 KNOTS BUT A GRADUAL
TURN TO THE NORTH IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY AS NICOLE WILL BE STEERED
PRIMARILY BY A MID-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING OFF THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES. SOME SLOWING IN THE FORWARD SPEED IS SHOWN IN 36 TO 48
HOURS AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO COMBINE WITH THE EXTRATROPICAL
CYCLONE. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST FOLLOWS THE DYNAMICAL MODEL
CONSENSUS...CONU...AND IS SLIGHTLY WEST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK.
FORECASTER MAINELLI/PASCH
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 10/1500Z 32.2N 66.8W 40 KT
12HR VT 11/0000Z 34.0N 66.6W 45 KT
24HR VT 11/1200Z 36.6N 65.1W 50 KT
36HR VT 12/0000Z 39.5N 64.5W 55 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT 12/1200Z 41.1N 64.5W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 13/1200Z 44.0N 62.5W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 14/1200Z...ABSORBED
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