| HOME | ARCHIVES | FORECASTS | IMAGERY | ABOUT NHC | RECONNAISSANCE |

Subtropical Storm NICOLE (Text)


ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
SUBTROPICAL STORM NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT SUN OCT 10 2004
 
LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES CONVECTIVE BANDS
DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF NICOLE.  HOWEVER THIS
CONVECTION IS RELATIVELY SHALLOW AND WELL REMOVED FROM THE
CENTER...SO THERE IS LITTLE INDICATION THAT THE CYCLONE IS
ACQUIRING TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS.  A 10Z HIRES QUIKSCAT PASS
CONTAINED 40 KNOT WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE AND THE WIND
RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED TO REFLECT THESE OBSERVATIONS.

THE OFFICIAL FORECAST STILL ALLOWS FOR SOME STRENGTHENING TO OCCUR
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...BUT THE ENVIRONMENT DOES NOT APPEAR
FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE.  ALTHOUGH THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS NICOLE BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL IN 36
HOURS...THE GFS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT IT COULD BECOME ABSORBED BY
A BAROCLINIC SYSTEM IN AS LITTLE AS 24 HOURS.   

THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS NORTH-NORTHWEST AT 11 KNOTS BUT A GRADUAL
TURN TO THE NORTH IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY AS NICOLE WILL BE STEERED
PRIMARILY BY A MID-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING OFF THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES. SOME SLOWING IN THE FORWARD SPEED IS SHOWN IN 36 TO 48
HOURS AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO COMBINE WITH THE EXTRATROPICAL
CYCLONE.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST FOLLOWS THE DYNAMICAL MODEL
CONSENSUS...CONU...AND IS SLIGHTLY WEST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK.  
  
FORECASTER MAINELLI/PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      10/1500Z 32.2N  66.8W    40 KT
 12HR VT     11/0000Z 34.0N  66.6W    45 KT
 24HR VT     11/1200Z 36.6N  65.1W    50 KT
 36HR VT     12/0000Z 39.5N  64.5W    55 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
 48HR VT     12/1200Z 41.1N  64.5W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 72HR VT     13/1200Z 44.0N  62.5W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 96HR VT     14/1200Z...ABSORBED
 
 
$$
NNNN

Standard version of this page

Alternate Formats
About Alternates - E-Mail Advisories - RSS Feeds

Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory - Past Advisories - About Advisories

Marine Forecasts
Latest Products - About Marine Products

Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery - US Weather Radar - Aircraft Recon - Local Data Archive - Forecast Verification - Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense

Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names Wind Scale - Prepare - Climatology - NHC Glossary - NHC Acronyms - Frequently Asked Questions - AOML Hurricane-Research Division

About Us
About NHC - Mission/Vision - Other NCEP Centers - NHC Staff - Visitor Information - NHC Library

Contact Us


NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Privacy Policy
Credits
About Us
Glossary
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Sunday, 10-Oct-2004 15:04:37 UTC