ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM SUBTROPICAL STORM NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT SUN OCT 10 2004 LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES CONVECTIVE BANDS DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF NICOLE. HOWEVER THIS CONVECTION IS RELATIVELY SHALLOW AND WELL REMOVED FROM THE CENTER...SO THERE IS LITTLE INDICATION THAT THE CYCLONE IS ACQUIRING TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. A 10Z HIRES QUIKSCAT PASS CONTAINED 40 KNOT WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE AND THE WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED TO REFLECT THESE OBSERVATIONS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST STILL ALLOWS FOR SOME STRENGTHENING TO OCCUR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...BUT THE ENVIRONMENT DOES NOT APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE. ALTHOUGH THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS NICOLE BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL IN 36 HOURS...THE GFS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT IT COULD BECOME ABSORBED BY A BAROCLINIC SYSTEM IN AS LITTLE AS 24 HOURS. THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS NORTH-NORTHWEST AT 11 KNOTS BUT A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY AS NICOLE WILL BE STEERED PRIMARILY BY A MID-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING OFF THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. SOME SLOWING IN THE FORWARD SPEED IS SHOWN IN 36 TO 48 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO COMBINE WITH THE EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST FOLLOWS THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS...CONU...AND IS SLIGHTLY WEST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK. FORECASTER MAINELLI/PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 10/1500Z 32.2N 66.8W 40 KT 12HR VT 11/0000Z 34.0N 66.6W 45 KT 24HR VT 11/1200Z 36.6N 65.1W 50 KT 36HR VT 12/0000Z 39.5N 64.5W 55 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 12/1200Z 41.1N 64.5W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 13/1200Z 44.0N 62.5W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 14/1200Z...ABSORBED $$ NNNN
Alternate Formats
About Alternates -
E-Mail Advisories -
RSS Feeds
Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory -
Past Advisories -
About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
Latest Products -
About Marine Products
Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery -
US Weather Radar -
Aircraft Recon -
Local Data Archive -
Forecast Verification -
Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense
Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names
Wind Scale -
Prepare -
Climatology -
NHC Glossary -
NHC Acronyms -
Frequently Asked Questions -
AOML Hurricane-Research Division
About Us
About NHC -
Mission/Vision -
Other NCEP Centers -
NHC Staff -
Visitor Information -
NHC Library
NOAA/
National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Privacy Policy
Credits
About Us
Glossary
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Sunday, 10-Oct-2004 15:04:37 UTC