Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Center on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
Subscribe the National Hurricane Center on YouTube Read the National Hurricane Center Inside the Eye blog on WordPress
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Hurricane FRANCES


ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM FRANCES DISCUSSION NUMBER  49
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SUN SEP 05 2004
 
FRANCES IS MAINTAINING WELL-ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE BANDING AND
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OVER A LARGE AREA.  A 56-KT SUSTAINED
WIND OBSERVATION FROM THE ST AUGUSTINE C-MAN AT 22Z SUGGESTS THAT
MAXIMUM WINDS MAY STILL BE NEAR 55 KT.  THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS
ALSO STAYED RATHER LOW AND IS ESTIMATED AT 976 MB BASED ON A 977.7
MB OBSERVATION NEAR TAMPA.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/07 BASED ON RADAR AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS.  THE GLOBAL TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN AGREEMENT
ON A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AND CONTINUED SLOW FORWARD SPEED
THROUGH 48 HOURS AS A TROUGH IN THE WESTERLIES ERODES THE RIDGE TO
THE NORTH OF FRANCES.  ACCELERATION TOWARD THE NORTHEAST FOLLOWS
AFTER 48 HOURS AS THE STORM IS CAUGHT UP AND ABSORBED WITHIN THE
WESTERLIES.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS JUST A LITTLE SLOWER
THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A
CONSENSUS OF THE GLOBAL MODELS AND WITH THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE
FORECAST.
 
THE CENTER IS NEAR THE COAST JUST NORTH OF TAMPA.  THE FORECAST
TRACK MOVES FRANCES OVER THE WATER OF THE NORTHEASTERN GULF ON
MONDAY AND THEN INLAND OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE BY 24 HOURS.
THERE IS NOT A LOT OF GUIDANCE SUPPORT FOR FRANCES REACHING
HURRICANE FORCE OVER THE WATER...BUT THE OFFICAL FORECAST IS TO 65
KT IN 24 HOURS AS A COURSE OF LEAST REGRET.
 
FORECASTER LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      06/0300Z 28.3N  82.7W    55 KT
 12HR VT     06/1200Z 28.8N  83.7W    60 KT...OVER WATER
 24HR VT     07/0000Z 30.0N  85.0W    65 KT...INLAND
 36HR VT     07/1200Z 31.6N  85.6W    35 KT...INLAND
 48HR VT     08/0000Z 33.0N  85.7W    25 KT...INLAND
 72HR VT     09/0000Z 37.0N  84.0W    25 KT...INLAND
 96HR VT     10/0000Z 41.5N  79.0W    25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT     11/0000Z...ABSORBED BY A FRONT
 
 
$$
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Monday, 06-Sep-2004 02:22:50 UTC