ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM FRANCES DISCUSSION NUMBER 49 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT SUN SEP 05 2004 FRANCES IS MAINTAINING WELL-ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE BANDING AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OVER A LARGE AREA. A 56-KT SUSTAINED WIND OBSERVATION FROM THE ST AUGUSTINE C-MAN AT 22Z SUGGESTS THAT MAXIMUM WINDS MAY STILL BE NEAR 55 KT. THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS ALSO STAYED RATHER LOW AND IS ESTIMATED AT 976 MB BASED ON A 977.7 MB OBSERVATION NEAR TAMPA. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/07 BASED ON RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. THE GLOBAL TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN AGREEMENT ON A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AND CONTINUED SLOW FORWARD SPEED THROUGH 48 HOURS AS A TROUGH IN THE WESTERLIES ERODES THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF FRANCES. ACCELERATION TOWARD THE NORTHEAST FOLLOWS AFTER 48 HOURS AS THE STORM IS CAUGHT UP AND ABSORBED WITHIN THE WESTERLIES. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS JUST A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A CONSENSUS OF THE GLOBAL MODELS AND WITH THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE FORECAST. THE CENTER IS NEAR THE COAST JUST NORTH OF TAMPA. THE FORECAST TRACK MOVES FRANCES OVER THE WATER OF THE NORTHEASTERN GULF ON MONDAY AND THEN INLAND OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE BY 24 HOURS. THERE IS NOT A LOT OF GUIDANCE SUPPORT FOR FRANCES REACHING HURRICANE FORCE OVER THE WATER...BUT THE OFFICAL FORECAST IS TO 65 KT IN 24 HOURS AS A COURSE OF LEAST REGRET. FORECASTER LAWRENCE FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 06/0300Z 28.3N 82.7W 55 KT 12HR VT 06/1200Z 28.8N 83.7W 60 KT...OVER WATER 24HR VT 07/0000Z 30.0N 85.0W 65 KT...INLAND 36HR VT 07/1200Z 31.6N 85.6W 35 KT...INLAND 48HR VT 08/0000Z 33.0N 85.7W 25 KT...INLAND 72HR VT 09/0000Z 37.0N 84.0W 25 KT...INLAND 96HR VT 10/0000Z 41.5N 79.0W 25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 11/0000Z...ABSORBED BY A FRONT $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 06-Sep-2004 02:22:50 UTC