Hurricane OLAF

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BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM OLAF ADVISORY NUMBER  16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT MON OCT 06 2003

...OLAF NEARING COASTLINE...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM PUNTA SAN TELMO TO
CABO CORRIENTES.
 
AT 8 PM PDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OLAF WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 18.8 NORTH... LONGITUDE 104.5 WEST OR ABOUT 20
MILES...35 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO.

OLAF IS MOVING ERRATICALLY TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 3 MPH ...6KM/HR...
AND A MOTION TOWARD THE NORTH OR NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF OLAF WILL
BE INLAND OR VERY CLOSE TO THE COAST LATE THIS EVENING OR EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING.

OLAF CONTINUES TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED. THE CUYULAN RADAR SHOWS A
EYE TYPE FEATURE WITH A BANDING PATTERN.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
ARE NEAR 60 MPH... 90 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE BEFORE THE CENTER REACHES THE COASTLINE.
  
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO  45 MILES
... 75 KM FROM THE CENTER.
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS  997 MB...29.44 INCHES.
 
ABOVE NORMAL TIDES...ALONG WITH LARGE AND BATTERING WAVES...ARE
OCCURRING ALONG THE COAST IN THE WARNING AREA.
 
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS...CAN BE EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH OLAF. THESE RAINS
COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.
 
REPEATING THE 8 PM PDT POSITION...18.8 N...104.5 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR  3 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 60 MPH. 
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 997 MB.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
 
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 PM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 2 AM PDT.
 
FORECASTER JARVINEN
 
 
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