Tropical Storm ERIKA

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TROPICAL STORM ERIKA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER   6A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
MIDNIGHT CDT SAT AUG 16 2003

...ERIKA NEARING COAST...SHOULD MAKE LANDFALL IN SOUTH TEXAS AND
NORTHEASTERN MEXICO BY DAYBREAK... NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH.
 
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM BROWNSVILLE TO BAFFIN BAY
TEXAS. A HURRICANE WARNING ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LA PESCA
MEXICO NORTHWARD TO THE U.S. BORDER.
 
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF BAFFIN BAY
TO PORT O'CONNOR.
 
AT MIDNIGHT CDT...0500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERIKA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE  96.0 WEST OR ABOUT
90 MILES...145 KM...EAST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS.
 
ERIKA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 20 MPH...31 KM/HR...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CENTER OF
ERIKA TO THE WESTERN GULF COAST NEAR BROWNSVILLE EARLY THIS MORNING.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...115 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE AND ERIKA COULD BECOME
A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE
LANDFALL.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES
...220 KM FROM THE CENTER.
 
THE EXTRAPOLATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE JUST REPORTED BY AN AIR
FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS  991 MB...29.26 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO BE 3 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE BATTERING WAVES...NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF
WHERE THE CENTER CROSSES THE COAST.
 
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR THE PATH OF ERIKA.  THIS COULD CAUSE
FLASH FLOODS...AND MUDSLIDES IN AREAS NEAR ELEVATED TERRAIN.  RADAR
DATA SHOWS OUTER RAINBANDS SHOULD REACH THE COAST SHORTLY.
 
THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED TORNADOES ALONG THE MIDDLE AND
LOWER TEXAS COAST TONIGHT.
 
REPEATING THE MIDNIGHT CDT POSITION...25.8 N... 96.0 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 20 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 70 MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 991 MB.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
 
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 2 AM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 4 AM
CDT.

THE CENTER OF ERIKA HAS BECOME POORLY DEFINED ON BROWNSVILLE RADAR
AND THE HOURLY POSITION ESTIMATES ARE DISCONTINUED AT THIS TIME.
 
FORECASTER LAWRENCE
 
 
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