Hurricane OLAF

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HURRICANE OLAF FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   9...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP152003
1500Z SUN OCT 05 2003

CORRECTED TO ADD ISLAS MARIAS TO HURRICANE WARNING...
 
AT 8 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA SAN
TELMO TO SAN BLAS...INCLUDING THE ISLAS MARIAS.  A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE COAST SOUTH OF PUNTA SAN TELMO TO
LAZARO CARDENAS.
 
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN
THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE
WARNING AREA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 104.3W AT 05/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT   9 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  987 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  65 KT WITH GUSTS TO  80 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
50 KT....... 40NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT....... 90NE  60SE  60SW  60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE  90SE  90SW  90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 104.3W AT 05/1500Z
AT 05/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 104.1W
 
FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 18.0N 105.1W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT... 90NE  60SE  60SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 18.9N 105.8W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT... 90NE  60SE  60SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 19.8N 106.4W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  25NW.
34 KT... 90NE  80SE  80SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 20.8N 107.1W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  90SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 22.0N 108.0W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  90SW  90NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z 23.5N 109.0W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 10/1200Z 25.0N 110.0W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.1N 104.3W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/2100Z
 
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
 
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