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Hurricane PATRICIA
ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM PATRICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT FRI OCT 24 2003
SEVERAL HOURS OF VISIBLE IMAGERY HAVE NOT HELPED TO LOCATE THE
CENTER OF PATRICIA. A QUIKSCAT PASS AT 1340Z SUGGESTED THAT
PREVIOUS POSITIONS WERE PROBABLY A LITTLE TOO FAR NORTH. THE
CIRCULATION APPEARS TO BE BROAD AND PERHAPS ELONGATED NORTH/SOUTH.
CONVECTION SHOWS LITTLE OR NO ORGANIZATION...EVEN THOUGH PATRICIA
IS UNDERNEATH AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE
35 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB. SINCE THE QUIKSCAT SHOWED A FEW 40 KT
VECTORS I WILL KEEP THE ADVISORY WINDS AT 40 KT...EVEN THOUGH THE
VECTORS MAY HAVE BEEN CONTAMINATED.
MY GUESS AT THE INITIAL MOTION IS 340/5. PATRICIA APPEARS TO BE
ROUNDING THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE THAT EXTENDS WESTWARD
FROM THE MEXICAN COAST. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL LOW WEST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA WITH A BROAD BAND OF
WESTERLIES BETWEEN THIS LOW AND THE TROPICAL CYCLONE...AND GLOBAL
MODELS INDICATE THAT A WEST OR SOUTHWESTERLY MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL
STEERING FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS NORTH OF
ABOUT 17N. THE MAJOR TRACK MODELS TAKE PATRICIA SLOWLY NORTHWARD
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AFTER THAT...MOST GUIDANCE INDICATES
THAT PATRICIA WILL DISSIPATE OVER COOLER WATERS AND UNDER
INCREASING WESTERLY SHEAR. ALTHOUGH PATRICIA DOES NOT APPEAR WELL
ORGANIZED NOW...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ALLOWS FOR A DIURNAL BOOST
TONIGHT UNDER THE FAVORABLE UPPER FLOW BEFORE THE SHEAR BEGINS TO
INCREASE. SHOULD THIS NOT OCCUR...PATRICIA COULD DISSIPATE SOONER
THAN INDICATED BELOW.
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 24/2100Z 14.5N 113.3W 40 KT
12HR VT 25/0600Z 15.3N 113.5W 45 KT
24HR VT 25/1800Z 16.3N 113.7W 45 KT
36HR VT 26/0600Z 17.5N 113.9W 40 KT
48HR VT 26/1800Z 18.5N 114.0W 35 KT
72HR VT 27/1800Z 19.0N 115.0W 30 KT
96HR VT 28/1800Z 19.5N 116.0W 25 KT...DISSIPATING
120HR VT 29/1800Z...DISSIPATED
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