ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM PATRICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 18 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 PM PDT FRI OCT 24 2003 SEVERAL HOURS OF VISIBLE IMAGERY HAVE NOT HELPED TO LOCATE THE CENTER OF PATRICIA. A QUIKSCAT PASS AT 1340Z SUGGESTED THAT PREVIOUS POSITIONS WERE PROBABLY A LITTLE TOO FAR NORTH. THE CIRCULATION APPEARS TO BE BROAD AND PERHAPS ELONGATED NORTH/SOUTH. CONVECTION SHOWS LITTLE OR NO ORGANIZATION...EVEN THOUGH PATRICIA IS UNDERNEATH AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 35 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB. SINCE THE QUIKSCAT SHOWED A FEW 40 KT VECTORS I WILL KEEP THE ADVISORY WINDS AT 40 KT...EVEN THOUGH THE VECTORS MAY HAVE BEEN CONTAMINATED. MY GUESS AT THE INITIAL MOTION IS 340/5. PATRICIA APPEARS TO BE ROUNDING THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE THAT EXTENDS WESTWARD FROM THE MEXICAN COAST. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW WEST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA WITH A BROAD BAND OF WESTERLIES BETWEEN THIS LOW AND THE TROPICAL CYCLONE...AND GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT A WEST OR SOUTHWESTERLY MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL STEERING FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS NORTH OF ABOUT 17N. THE MAJOR TRACK MODELS TAKE PATRICIA SLOWLY NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AFTER THAT...MOST GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT PATRICIA WILL DISSIPATE OVER COOLER WATERS AND UNDER INCREASING WESTERLY SHEAR. ALTHOUGH PATRICIA DOES NOT APPEAR WELL ORGANIZED NOW...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ALLOWS FOR A DIURNAL BOOST TONIGHT UNDER THE FAVORABLE UPPER FLOW BEFORE THE SHEAR BEGINS TO INCREASE. SHOULD THIS NOT OCCUR...PATRICIA COULD DISSIPATE SOONER THAN INDICATED BELOW. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 24/2100Z 14.5N 113.3W 40 KT 12HR VT 25/0600Z 15.3N 113.5W 45 KT 24HR VT 25/1800Z 16.3N 113.7W 45 KT 36HR VT 26/0600Z 17.5N 113.9W 40 KT 48HR VT 26/1800Z 18.5N 114.0W 35 KT 72HR VT 27/1800Z 19.0N 115.0W 30 KT 96HR VT 28/1800Z 19.5N 116.0W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 120HR VT 29/1800Z...DISSIPATED NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:50:01 UTC