Hurricane PATRICIA

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TROPICAL STORM PATRICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT WED OCT 22 2003
 
PATRICIA CONTINUES TO LOOK UNIMPRESSIVE ON SATELLITE IMAGES AS IT
REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR.
THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR THE WESTERN EDGE OF A
RATHER RAGGED-LOOKING AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION.  TAKING THE MEAN OF
THE LATEST DVORAK T AND C.I. NUMBERS...WHICH WE HAVE FOUND TO YIELD
REASONABLE INTENSITY ESTIMATES...GIVES A WIND SPEED OF 50 KT.  THE
OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST ALLOWS FOR SOME RELAXATION OF THE SHEAR
OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...SUCH AS SUGGESTED BY SOME OF THE GLOBAL
MODEL GUIDANCE.  HOWEVER IF THE SHEARING PERSISTS...PATRICIA WILL
LIKELY WEAKEN MORE THAN INDICATED HERE.

INITIAL MOTION HAS SLOWED A BIT TO 285/8.  THE STEERING APPEARS TO
BE PROVIDED BY A NARROW MID-LEVEL RIDGE...WHICH SEPARATES PATRICIA
FROM AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED TROUGH NEAR SOUTHERN BAJA.  THERE
CONTINUES TO BE CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN THE DYNAMICAL TRACK
GUIDANCE.  AS NOTED EARLIER...THE GFDL'S FORECAST OF A STRONG
HURRICANE TURNING SHARPLY NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD MEXICO LOOKS
DUBIOUS.  THE OTHER MODELS ARE MUCH FARTHER WEST...ESPECIALLY THE
GFS.  I EXPECT A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
WEAKENS.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THAT FROM
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  THIS ASSUMES THAT PATRICIA WILL NOT BECOME
A STRONG CYCLONE...AND WILL BE STEERED PRIMARILY BY THE MID- TO
LOW-LEVEL FLOW.
 
FORECASTER PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      23/0300Z 12.5N 109.0W    50 KT
 12HR VT     23/1200Z 13.0N 110.1W    50 KT
 24HR VT     24/0000Z 13.9N 111.3W    50 KT
 36HR VT     24/1200Z 14.9N 112.3W    50 KT
 48HR VT     25/0000Z 15.8N 113.3W    50 KT
 72HR VT     26/0000Z 17.5N 115.0W    45 KT
 96HR VT     27/0000Z 19.0N 117.0W    40 KT
120HR VT     28/0000Z 20.0N 119.5W    35 KT
  
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