ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM PATRICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 PM PDT WED OCT 22 2003 PATRICIA CONTINUES TO LOOK UNIMPRESSIVE ON SATELLITE IMAGES AS IT REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR. THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR THE WESTERN EDGE OF A RATHER RAGGED-LOOKING AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION. TAKING THE MEAN OF THE LATEST DVORAK T AND C.I. NUMBERS...WHICH WE HAVE FOUND TO YIELD REASONABLE INTENSITY ESTIMATES...GIVES A WIND SPEED OF 50 KT. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST ALLOWS FOR SOME RELAXATION OF THE SHEAR OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...SUCH AS SUGGESTED BY SOME OF THE GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE. HOWEVER IF THE SHEARING PERSISTS...PATRICIA WILL LIKELY WEAKEN MORE THAN INDICATED HERE. INITIAL MOTION HAS SLOWED A BIT TO 285/8. THE STEERING APPEARS TO BE PROVIDED BY A NARROW MID-LEVEL RIDGE...WHICH SEPARATES PATRICIA FROM AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED TROUGH NEAR SOUTHERN BAJA. THERE CONTINUES TO BE CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN THE DYNAMICAL TRACK GUIDANCE. AS NOTED EARLIER...THE GFDL'S FORECAST OF A STRONG HURRICANE TURNING SHARPLY NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD MEXICO LOOKS DUBIOUS. THE OTHER MODELS ARE MUCH FARTHER WEST...ESPECIALLY THE GFS. I EXPECT A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WEAKENS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THAT FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THIS ASSUMES THAT PATRICIA WILL NOT BECOME A STRONG CYCLONE...AND WILL BE STEERED PRIMARILY BY THE MID- TO LOW-LEVEL FLOW. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 23/0300Z 12.5N 109.0W 50 KT 12HR VT 23/1200Z 13.0N 110.1W 50 KT 24HR VT 24/0000Z 13.9N 111.3W 50 KT 36HR VT 24/1200Z 14.9N 112.3W 50 KT 48HR VT 25/0000Z 15.8N 113.3W 50 KT 72HR VT 26/0000Z 17.5N 115.0W 45 KT 96HR VT 27/0000Z 19.0N 117.0W 40 KT 120HR VT 28/0000Z 20.0N 119.5W 35 KT NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:50:01 UTC