Hurricane PATRICIA

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HURRICANE PATRICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
ISSUED BY HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
8 AM PDT TUE OCT 21 2003
 
THE ESTIMATED INITIAL MOTION IS 315/8.  THERE IS A MID-TROPOSPHERIC
LOW CENTERED NEAR CABO SAN LUCAS AND A WEAK RIDGE JUST NORTH AND
EAST OF PATRICIA.  THE GFDL AND UKMET MODELS TURN A STRENGTHENING
STORM NORTHWARD TOWARD THE LOW WHILE THE GFS AND NOGAPS SHOW A
WEAKER SYSTEM MOVING ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK.  THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST TRACK LEANS MORE TOWARD THE NORTHWARD SOLUTION...WHICH IS
SHIFTED RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TO BE A CLOSER TO THOSE
MODELS...AS WELL AS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE STORMS MORE RECENT NORTHWEST
MOTION. 
 
THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 65 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK
T-NUMBERS OF 4.0 FROM ALL AGENCIES.  THE INTENSITY MODELS SHOW
ANYWHERE FROM SLIGHT TO SIGNIFICANT STRENTHENING FOR PATRICIA.
CONSIDERING ITS FAIRLY RAPID JUMP TO HURRICANE INTENSITY...THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST BRINGS THE STORM UP TO 90 KTS BY HR 36 BEFORE
SHEAR BEGINS TO WEAKEN THE STORM.
 
FORECASTER ROTH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      21/1500Z 11.8N 103.5W    65 KT
 12HR VT     22/0000Z 12.5N 104.5W    75 KT
 24HR VT     22/1200Z 13.6N 105.8W    85 KT
 36HR VT     23/0000Z 14.4N 106.8W    90 KT
 48HR VT     23/1200Z 15.1N 107.7W    90 KT
 72HR VT     24/1200Z 17.0N 109.1W    85 KT
 96HR VT     25/1200Z 19.2N 109.4W    75 KT
120HR VT     26/1200Z 22.1N 108.8W    65 KT
 
 
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