ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE PATRICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL ISSUED BY HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 8 AM PDT TUE OCT 21 2003 THE ESTIMATED INITIAL MOTION IS 315/8. THERE IS A MID-TROPOSPHERIC LOW CENTERED NEAR CABO SAN LUCAS AND A WEAK RIDGE JUST NORTH AND EAST OF PATRICIA. THE GFDL AND UKMET MODELS TURN A STRENGTHENING STORM NORTHWARD TOWARD THE LOW WHILE THE GFS AND NOGAPS SHOW A WEAKER SYSTEM MOVING ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK LEANS MORE TOWARD THE NORTHWARD SOLUTION...WHICH IS SHIFTED RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TO BE A CLOSER TO THOSE MODELS...AS WELL AS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE STORMS MORE RECENT NORTHWEST MOTION. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 65 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK T-NUMBERS OF 4.0 FROM ALL AGENCIES. THE INTENSITY MODELS SHOW ANYWHERE FROM SLIGHT TO SIGNIFICANT STRENTHENING FOR PATRICIA. CONSIDERING ITS FAIRLY RAPID JUMP TO HURRICANE INTENSITY...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST BRINGS THE STORM UP TO 90 KTS BY HR 36 BEFORE SHEAR BEGINS TO WEAKEN THE STORM. FORECASTER ROTH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 21/1500Z 11.8N 103.5W 65 KT 12HR VT 22/0000Z 12.5N 104.5W 75 KT 24HR VT 22/1200Z 13.6N 105.8W 85 KT 36HR VT 23/0000Z 14.4N 106.8W 90 KT 48HR VT 23/1200Z 15.1N 107.7W 90 KT 72HR VT 24/1200Z 17.0N 109.1W 85 KT 96HR VT 25/1200Z 19.2N 109.4W 75 KT 120HR VT 26/1200Z 22.1N 108.8W 65 KT NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:50:01 UTC