Hurricane NORA

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HURRICANE NORA DISCUSSION NUMBER  19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT MON OCT 06 2003

NORA MAY NO LONGER BE A HURRICANE...AS IR SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES WARMING CLOUD TOPS AND A RATHER DISORGANIZED PATTERN.  A
0444 UTC SSMI MICROWAVE OVERPASS REVEALED THAT THE CENTER OF NORA
IS DISPLACED TO THE SE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION...AS
SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR FROM THE OUTFLOW OF OLAF IS HAVING A
DISRUPTING INFLUENCE.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 65 KT
AND THIS MAY BE GENEROUS.

IT APPEARS THAT NORA HAS TURNED A LITTLE MORE NORTHWARD AND THE
ESTIMATED MOTION IS 345/4.  THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFF THE
COAST OF CALIFORNIA IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHWARD AND REMAIN OFF
THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THE MAIN DIFFERENCE IN THE GLOBAL MODELS IS HOW THEY HANDLE THE
INTERACTION BETWEEN NORA AND OLAF TO THE EAST. THE MODELS ARE
DEPICTING DIFFERENT SCENARIOS WITH EACH SUCCESSIVE FORECAST.  THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST ASSUMES THAT THE RESULTS WILL BE A SLOW NORTHERLY
MOTION FOR NORA...WITH A TURN TO THE NORTHEAST AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. 
THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS CLOSE THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH 48
HOURS...WHICH BRINGS THE SYSTEM JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN BAJA
PENINSULA. BEYOND 48 HOURS THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO GET CLOSER TO
THE CIRCULATION OF OLAF.

INCREASING SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST AS THE MID-UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES BAJA.  THEREFORE...STEADY WEAKENING IS
EXPECTED. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST INDICATES FASTER WEAKENING THAN 
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY BUT NOT AS QUICKLY THE SHIPS GUIDANCE. 
 
FORECASTER BROWN/PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      06/0900Z 20.3N 113.9W    65 KT
 12HR VT     06/1800Z 20.8N 114.0W    60 KT
 24HR VT     07/0600Z 21.3N 113.5W    55 KT
 36HR VT     07/1800Z 21.9N 112.8W    50 KT
 48HR VT     08/0600Z 22.7N 111.7W    40 KT
 72HR VT     09/0600Z 24.5N 110.5W    35 KT
 96HR VT     10/0600Z 27.0N 109.5W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
120HR VT     11/0600Z...DISSIPATED 
 
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