ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE NORA DISCUSSION NUMBER 19 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 AM PDT MON OCT 06 2003 NORA MAY NO LONGER BE A HURRICANE...AS IR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES WARMING CLOUD TOPS AND A RATHER DISORGANIZED PATTERN. A 0444 UTC SSMI MICROWAVE OVERPASS REVEALED THAT THE CENTER OF NORA IS DISPLACED TO THE SE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION...AS SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR FROM THE OUTFLOW OF OLAF IS HAVING A DISRUPTING INFLUENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 65 KT AND THIS MAY BE GENEROUS. IT APPEARS THAT NORA HAS TURNED A LITTLE MORE NORTHWARD AND THE ESTIMATED MOTION IS 345/4. THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHWARD AND REMAIN OFF THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE IN THE GLOBAL MODELS IS HOW THEY HANDLE THE INTERACTION BETWEEN NORA AND OLAF TO THE EAST. THE MODELS ARE DEPICTING DIFFERENT SCENARIOS WITH EACH SUCCESSIVE FORECAST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ASSUMES THAT THE RESULTS WILL BE A SLOW NORTHERLY MOTION FOR NORA...WITH A TURN TO THE NORTHEAST AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS CLOSE THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH 48 HOURS...WHICH BRINGS THE SYSTEM JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA. BEYOND 48 HOURS THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO GET CLOSER TO THE CIRCULATION OF OLAF. INCREASING SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST AS THE MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES BAJA. THEREFORE...STEADY WEAKENING IS EXPECTED. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST INDICATES FASTER WEAKENING THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY BUT NOT AS QUICKLY THE SHIPS GUIDANCE. FORECASTER BROWN/PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 06/0900Z 20.3N 113.9W 65 KT 12HR VT 06/1800Z 20.8N 114.0W 60 KT 24HR VT 07/0600Z 21.3N 113.5W 55 KT 36HR VT 07/1800Z 21.9N 112.8W 50 KT 48HR VT 08/0600Z 22.7N 111.7W 40 KT 72HR VT 09/0600Z 24.5N 110.5W 35 KT 96HR VT 10/0600Z 27.0N 109.5W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 120HR VT 11/0600Z...DISSIPATED NNNN
Alternate Formats
About Alternates -
E-Mail Advisories -
RSS Feeds
Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory -
Past Advisories -
About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
Latest Products -
About Marine Products
Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery -
US Weather Radar -
Aircraft Recon -
Local Data Archive -
Forecast Verification -
Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense
Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names
Wind Scale -
Prepare -
Climatology -
NHC Glossary -
NHC Acronyms -
Frequently Asked Questions -
AOML Hurricane-Research Division
About Us
About NHC -
Mission/Vision -
Other NCEP Centers -
NHC Staff -
Visitor Information -
NHC Library
NOAA/
National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Privacy Policy
Credits
About Us
Glossary
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:50:00 UTC