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Tropical Storm MARTY


ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM MARTY DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT FRI SEP 19 2003
 
LATEST AMSU DATA REVEALED THAT THE SYSTEM WAS MORE TO THE NORTHEAST
THAN PREVIOUSLY NOTED...SO THE INITIAL LOCATION HAS BEEN ADJUSTED 
NORTHEASTWARD TO REFLECT THIS OBSERVATION. SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM
THIS EVENING INDICATE THAT OVERALL SYSTEM STRUCTURE HAS BECOME
BETTER DEFINED AS NOTED IN MORE PRONOUNCED BANDING FEATURES.
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB ARE 3.0 ON THE
DVORAK SCALE SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SLIGHTLY INCREASED TO 45
KT. THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES OVER WARM
WATER AND IN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT THROUGH THE NEXT 3 DAYS.
THEREAFTER... MARTY SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN OVER COOL WATER.
 
BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 300/08. THIS GENERAL MOTION
IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS...AROUND THE
PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  THEREAFTER...THE CONSENSUS OF
FORECAST TRACK MODELS SHOW MORE OF A NORTHERLY TRACK AS THE RIDGE
TO THE NORTH WEAKENS. THE OUTLIER BEING THE NOGAPS MODEL MOVES THE
CYCLONE WESTWARD FOR 72 HOURS BUT EVENTUALLY TURNS THE CYCLONE TO
THE NORTH. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN ADJUSTED A LITTLE
TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK AS SUGGESTED BY THE
CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS.

NOTE: A SMALL DEVIATION TO THE NORTH OF THE PROJECTED TRACK..AS
SUGGESTED BY THE GFDL...WILL BRING MARTY CLOSER TO THE SOUTHERN
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THEREFORE...INTERESTS IN THAT AREA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF MARTY.  
 
FORECASTER AVILA/AGUIRRE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      20/0300Z 17.7N 107.9W    45 KT
 12HR VT     20/1200Z 18.5N 109.0W    50 KT
 24HR VT     21/0000Z 19.3N 110.7W    60 KT
 36HR VT     21/1200Z 20.0N 112.0W    70 KT
 48HR VT     22/0000Z 21.0N 113.0W    75 KT
 72HR VT     23/0000Z 23.0N 115.0W    75 KT
 96HR VT     24/0000Z 25.0N 116.5W    60 KT
120HR VT     25/0000Z 27.0N 117.5W    45 KT
 
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:59 UTC