ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM MARTY DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 PM PDT FRI SEP 19 2003 LATEST AMSU DATA REVEALED THAT THE SYSTEM WAS MORE TO THE NORTHEAST THAN PREVIOUSLY NOTED...SO THE INITIAL LOCATION HAS BEEN ADJUSTED NORTHEASTWARD TO REFLECT THIS OBSERVATION. SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM THIS EVENING INDICATE THAT OVERALL SYSTEM STRUCTURE HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED AS NOTED IN MORE PRONOUNCED BANDING FEATURES. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB ARE 3.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SLIGHTLY INCREASED TO 45 KT. THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES OVER WARM WATER AND IN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT THROUGH THE NEXT 3 DAYS. THEREAFTER... MARTY SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN OVER COOL WATER. BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 300/08. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS...AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THEREAFTER...THE CONSENSUS OF FORECAST TRACK MODELS SHOW MORE OF A NORTHERLY TRACK AS THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH WEAKENS. THE OUTLIER BEING THE NOGAPS MODEL MOVES THE CYCLONE WESTWARD FOR 72 HOURS BUT EVENTUALLY TURNS THE CYCLONE TO THE NORTH. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN ADJUSTED A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK AS SUGGESTED BY THE CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS. NOTE: A SMALL DEVIATION TO THE NORTH OF THE PROJECTED TRACK..AS SUGGESTED BY THE GFDL...WILL BRING MARTY CLOSER TO THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THEREFORE...INTERESTS IN THAT AREA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF MARTY. FORECASTER AVILA/AGUIRRE FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 20/0300Z 17.7N 107.9W 45 KT 12HR VT 20/1200Z 18.5N 109.0W 50 KT 24HR VT 21/0000Z 19.3N 110.7W 60 KT 36HR VT 21/1200Z 20.0N 112.0W 70 KT 48HR VT 22/0000Z 21.0N 113.0W 75 KT 72HR VT 23/0000Z 23.0N 115.0W 75 KT 96HR VT 24/0000Z 25.0N 116.5W 60 KT 120HR VT 25/0000Z 27.0N 117.5W 45 KT NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:59 UTC