Hurricane LINDA

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HURRICANE LINDA DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT MON SEP 15 2003
 
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT LINDA CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT
A GOOD CURVED CLOUD PATTERN...BUT UNLIKE 12-24 HRS AGO THE
BANDING FEATURES ARE NOT AS WELL DEFINED. DRY AIR INTRUSION
INTO LINDA FROM STABLE SURROUNDING AIR IS MARKED BY THINNING
OUT OF BANDING FEATURES OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE AS WELL
AS LACK OF DEEP CONVECTION. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES
ARE 65 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB AND 55 KT FROM AFWA. THEREFORE
WILL KEEP THE INITIAL INTENSITY AT 65 KT THEN WEAKEN TO JUST
BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH AFTER 24 HOURS.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 310/08. ONLY CHANGE WITH FORECAST
TRACK WILL BE AN ADJUSTMENT OF THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST 
TRACK TO THE SOUTH AS LINDA WEAKENS OVER COOLER WATER AND UNDERGOES 
WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AFTER MOVING NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS. LINDA WILL THEN BE STEERED TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST BY A
STRONG SURFACE HIGH THAT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD OFF THE COASTS OF
CALIFORNIA AND BAJA CALIFORNIA.

FORECASTER JARVINEN/AGUIRRE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      16/0300Z 20.6N 114.3W    65 KT
 12HR VT     16/1200Z 21.4N 115.4W    65 KT
 24HR VT     17/0000Z 21.9N 116.8W    65 KT
 36HR VT     17/1200Z 22.0N 118.0W    60 KT
 48HR VT     18/0000Z 21.9N 119.0W    50 KT
 72HR VT     19/0000Z 21.5N 121.1W    40 KT
 96HR VT     20/0000Z 20.9N 122.8W    30 KT...DISSIPATING
120HR VT     21/0000Z 20.0N 124.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
 
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