ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE LINDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 PM PDT MON SEP 15 2003 SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT LINDA CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT A GOOD CURVED CLOUD PATTERN...BUT UNLIKE 12-24 HRS AGO THE BANDING FEATURES ARE NOT AS WELL DEFINED. DRY AIR INTRUSION INTO LINDA FROM STABLE SURROUNDING AIR IS MARKED BY THINNING OUT OF BANDING FEATURES OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE AS WELL AS LACK OF DEEP CONVECTION. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 65 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB AND 55 KT FROM AFWA. THEREFORE WILL KEEP THE INITIAL INTENSITY AT 65 KT THEN WEAKEN TO JUST BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH AFTER 24 HOURS. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 310/08. ONLY CHANGE WITH FORECAST TRACK WILL BE AN ADJUSTMENT OF THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK TO THE SOUTH AS LINDA WEAKENS OVER COOLER WATER AND UNDERGOES WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AFTER MOVING NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LINDA WILL THEN BE STEERED TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST BY A STRONG SURFACE HIGH THAT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD OFF THE COASTS OF CALIFORNIA AND BAJA CALIFORNIA. FORECASTER JARVINEN/AGUIRRE FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 16/0300Z 20.6N 114.3W 65 KT 12HR VT 16/1200Z 21.4N 115.4W 65 KT 24HR VT 17/0000Z 21.9N 116.8W 65 KT 36HR VT 17/1200Z 22.0N 118.0W 60 KT 48HR VT 18/0000Z 21.9N 119.0W 50 KT 72HR VT 19/0000Z 21.5N 121.1W 40 KT 96HR VT 20/0000Z 20.9N 122.8W 30 KT...DISSIPATING 120HR VT 21/0000Z 20.0N 124.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:58 UTC