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Tropical Storm KEVIN


ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION KEVIN DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT FRI SEP 05 2003

KEVIN IS A LARGE SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS ON SATELLITE PICTURES
COMPLETELY DEVOID OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.  HOWEVER A 1300 UTC
QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWED A FEW UNCONTAMINATED WIND VECTORS OF 25-30 KT. 
SINCE THE CIRCULATION HAS NOT HAD ANY DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE
CENTER IN 15 HOURS... IT IS ASSUMED THAT THE WINDS ARE GRADUALLY
SLOWING AND 25 KT IS USED AS THE INITIAL INTENSITY.  
 
A TURN TO THE LEFT HAS OCCURRED BENEATH A LOW/MID LEVEL RIDGE
SOUTHWEST OF CALIFORNIA.  THE CURRENT MOTION IS 285/08 BUT SHOULD
CONTINUE SHIFTING LEFT AS THE CYCLONE WEAKENS.  THE TRACK IS
ADJUSTED A BIT TO THE SOUTH NEAR THE GFS MODEL SOLUTION WHICH SEEMS
TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE OF THE SYNOPTIC FEATURES.
 
THE INTENSITY FORECAST SEEMS LIKE A NO-BRAINER WITH KEVIN CROSSING
THE 24C ISOTHERM INTO COOLER WATER.  A SLOW STEADY WEAKENING IS
LIKELY WITH AN OCCASIONAL PUFF OF CONVECTION POSSIBLE.  THE REMNANT
LOW OF KEVIN SHOULD HOLD TOGETHER FOR A FEW DAYS AS THE CIRCULATION
OF THE CYCLONE IS SOMEWHAT LARGE AND WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO SPIN
DOWN.
 
FORECASTER BLAKE/FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      05/2100Z 23.2N 118.3W    25 KT
 12HR VT     06/0600Z 23.5N 119.6W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 24HR VT     06/1800Z 23.8N 121.2W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 36HR VT     07/0600Z 24.0N 122.7W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 48HR VT     07/1800Z 24.0N 124.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     08/1800Z 23.5N 127.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     09/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:58 UTC