ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION KEVIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 PM PDT FRI SEP 05 2003 KEVIN IS A LARGE SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS ON SATELLITE PICTURES COMPLETELY DEVOID OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. HOWEVER A 1300 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWED A FEW UNCONTAMINATED WIND VECTORS OF 25-30 KT. SINCE THE CIRCULATION HAS NOT HAD ANY DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE CENTER IN 15 HOURS... IT IS ASSUMED THAT THE WINDS ARE GRADUALLY SLOWING AND 25 KT IS USED AS THE INITIAL INTENSITY. A TURN TO THE LEFT HAS OCCURRED BENEATH A LOW/MID LEVEL RIDGE SOUTHWEST OF CALIFORNIA. THE CURRENT MOTION IS 285/08 BUT SHOULD CONTINUE SHIFTING LEFT AS THE CYCLONE WEAKENS. THE TRACK IS ADJUSTED A BIT TO THE SOUTH NEAR THE GFS MODEL SOLUTION WHICH SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE OF THE SYNOPTIC FEATURES. THE INTENSITY FORECAST SEEMS LIKE A NO-BRAINER WITH KEVIN CROSSING THE 24C ISOTHERM INTO COOLER WATER. A SLOW STEADY WEAKENING IS LIKELY WITH AN OCCASIONAL PUFF OF CONVECTION POSSIBLE. THE REMNANT LOW OF KEVIN SHOULD HOLD TOGETHER FOR A FEW DAYS AS THE CIRCULATION OF THE CYCLONE IS SOMEWHAT LARGE AND WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO SPIN DOWN. FORECASTER BLAKE/FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 05/2100Z 23.2N 118.3W 25 KT 12HR VT 06/0600Z 23.5N 119.6W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 24HR VT 06/1800Z 23.8N 121.2W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 36HR VT 07/0600Z 24.0N 122.7W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 07/1800Z 24.0N 124.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 08/1800Z 23.5N 127.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 09/1800Z...DISSIPATED NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:58 UTC