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Tropical Storm KEVIN


ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION KEVIN DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT FRI SEP 05 2003
 
KEVIN IS NOT AN IMPRESSIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE THIS MORNING WITH AN
EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION AND WEAK CONVECTION DISPLACED FAR TO
THE SOUTH OF THE CENTER.  ALTHOUGH DVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE DROPPING...
A QUIKSCAT PASS AT 0600 UTC FROM THE ADEOS-II SATELLITE RECORDED A
FEW UNCONTAMINATED 30 KT WIND VECTORS.  THEREFORE...THE INITIAL
INTENSITY WILL BE HELD AT 30 KT. 

THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BE STAY SOUTH OF A LOW/MID LEVEL RIDGE
SOUTHWEST OF CALIFORNIA.  AS KEVIN WEAKENS...IT SHOULD TURN MORE TO
THE LEFT AND BE STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW.  THE FORECAST TRACK
IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS BETWEEN THE BAMS AND GFS MODEL.

THE INTENSITY WILL LIKELY BE DROPPING AS THE DEPRESSION IS CROSSING
THE 25C ISOTHERM.  KEVIN IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE LATER TODAY OR
TOMORROW OVER WATERS NEAR 23C IN ABOUT 24 HOURS.  THE REMNANT LOW
OF KEVIN SHOULD HOLD TOGETHER FOR A FEW DAYS AS THE CIRCULATION OF
THE CYCLONE IS SOMEWHAT LARGE AND WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO SPIN DOWN.

FORECASTER BLAKE/FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      05/1500Z 23.2N 117.5W    30 KT
 12HR VT     06/0000Z 23.7N 118.8W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 24HR VT     06/1200Z 24.3N 120.4W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 36HR VT     07/0000Z 24.8N 122.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 48HR VT     07/1200Z 25.0N 124.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     08/1200Z 25.0N 127.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     09/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:58 UTC