ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION KEVIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 AM PDT FRI SEP 05 2003 KEVIN IS NOT AN IMPRESSIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE THIS MORNING WITH AN EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION AND WEAK CONVECTION DISPLACED FAR TO THE SOUTH OF THE CENTER. ALTHOUGH DVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE DROPPING... A QUIKSCAT PASS AT 0600 UTC FROM THE ADEOS-II SATELLITE RECORDED A FEW UNCONTAMINATED 30 KT WIND VECTORS. THEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE HELD AT 30 KT. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BE STAY SOUTH OF A LOW/MID LEVEL RIDGE SOUTHWEST OF CALIFORNIA. AS KEVIN WEAKENS...IT SHOULD TURN MORE TO THE LEFT AND BE STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE FORECAST TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS BETWEEN THE BAMS AND GFS MODEL. THE INTENSITY WILL LIKELY BE DROPPING AS THE DEPRESSION IS CROSSING THE 25C ISOTHERM. KEVIN IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE LATER TODAY OR TOMORROW OVER WATERS NEAR 23C IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. THE REMNANT LOW OF KEVIN SHOULD HOLD TOGETHER FOR A FEW DAYS AS THE CIRCULATION OF THE CYCLONE IS SOMEWHAT LARGE AND WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO SPIN DOWN. FORECASTER BLAKE/FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 05/1500Z 23.2N 117.5W 30 KT 12HR VT 06/0000Z 23.7N 118.8W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 24HR VT 06/1200Z 24.3N 120.4W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 36HR VT 07/0000Z 24.8N 122.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 07/1200Z 25.0N 124.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 08/1200Z 25.0N 127.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 09/1200Z...DISSIPATED NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:58 UTC