Tropical Depression TEN-E

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT THU AUG 28 2003
 
MICROWAVE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF
DISTURBED WEATHER CENTERED ABOUT 1450 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA HAS DEVELOPED SUFFICIENT PERSISTENT
CONVECTION TO BE DESIGNATED A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.  CONVECTION IS
CONCENTRATED NEAR THE CENTER AND OUTFLOW IS GOOD IN ALL DIRECTIONS.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KT IS BASED UPON DVORAK CI NUMBERS OF
2.0 FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB.
 
INITIAL MOTION IS WESTWARD OR 280/10. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES
THAT THE CYCLONE IS LOCATED ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP
LAYER RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN MEXICO WESTWARD TO NEAR
140W. A SLIGHT WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE WEST OF 140W IS ASSOCIATED
WITH A MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR 29N146W...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AND ALLOW THE RIDGE TO
BECOME REESTABLISHED.  THIS PATTERN SHOULD INDUCE A WEST TO
WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE 120 HOUR
POSITION HAS THE CYCLONE ABOUT 60 NMI SOUTH OF THE BIG ISLAND OF
HAWAII.

THE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY OVER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES GREATER
THAN 28C...AND WATERS ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE
27C UNTIL THE CYCLONE REACHES ABOUT 140W.  SINCE SHEAR IS FORECAST
TO REMAIN WEAK UNTIL THE CYCLONE REACHES THE COOLER WATER...MOST OF
THE STRENGTHENING SHOULD OCCUR IN THE FIRST 48 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE SHIPS MODEL GUIDANCE AND BRINGS THE
CYCLONE TO MINIMAL HURRICANE INTENSITY BY 48 HOURS...THEN LEVELING
OFF DUE TO SLIGHTLY COOLER WATERS.
 
FORECASTER STEWART/KNABB
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      28/0900Z 13.8N 130.0W    30 KT
 12HR VT     28/1800Z 14.0N 131.4W    40 KT
 24HR VT     29/0600Z 14.6N 133.3W    50 KT
 36HR VT     29/1800Z 15.2N 135.2W    60 KT
 48HR VT     30/0600Z 15.7N 137.5W    65 KT
 72HR VT     31/0600Z 16.5N 143.0W    65 KT
 96HR VT     01/0600Z 17.5N 149.0W    65 KT
120HR VT     02/0600Z 18.0N 155.0W    65 KT
 
 
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