ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 AM PDT THU AUG 28 2003 MICROWAVE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER CENTERED ABOUT 1450 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA HAS DEVELOPED SUFFICIENT PERSISTENT CONVECTION TO BE DESIGNATED A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. CONVECTION IS CONCENTRATED NEAR THE CENTER AND OUTFLOW IS GOOD IN ALL DIRECTIONS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KT IS BASED UPON DVORAK CI NUMBERS OF 2.0 FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB. INITIAL MOTION IS WESTWARD OR 280/10. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE CYCLONE IS LOCATED ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP LAYER RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN MEXICO WESTWARD TO NEAR 140W. A SLIGHT WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE WEST OF 140W IS ASSOCIATED WITH A MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR 29N146W...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AND ALLOW THE RIDGE TO BECOME REESTABLISHED. THIS PATTERN SHOULD INDUCE A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE 120 HOUR POSITION HAS THE CYCLONE ABOUT 60 NMI SOUTH OF THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII. THE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY OVER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES GREATER THAN 28C...AND WATERS ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 27C UNTIL THE CYCLONE REACHES ABOUT 140W. SINCE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN WEAK UNTIL THE CYCLONE REACHES THE COOLER WATER...MOST OF THE STRENGTHENING SHOULD OCCUR IN THE FIRST 48 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE SHIPS MODEL GUIDANCE AND BRINGS THE CYCLONE TO MINIMAL HURRICANE INTENSITY BY 48 HOURS...THEN LEVELING OFF DUE TO SLIGHTLY COOLER WATERS. FORECASTER STEWART/KNABB FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 28/0900Z 13.8N 130.0W 30 KT 12HR VT 28/1800Z 14.0N 131.4W 40 KT 24HR VT 29/0600Z 14.6N 133.3W 50 KT 36HR VT 29/1800Z 15.2N 135.2W 60 KT 48HR VT 30/0600Z 15.7N 137.5W 65 KT 72HR VT 31/0600Z 16.5N 143.0W 65 KT 96HR VT 01/0600Z 17.5N 149.0W 65 KT 120HR VT 02/0600Z 18.0N 155.0W 65 KT NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:57 UTC