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Hurricane IGNACIO


ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION IGNACIO DISCUSSION NUMBER  21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT TUE AUG 26 2003
 
IGNACIO REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED THIS EVENING AS IT MOVES UP
THE BAJA PENINSULA. THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER HAS BEEN 
DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY...HOWEVER SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS FROM LORETO INDICATE THAT IT IS STILL OVER LAND
AND NEARBY.  SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES THAT A MID LEVEL
CLOUD SYSTEM CENTER WITH SOME DEEP CONVECTION HAS MOVED OFF THE
BAJA PENINSULA OVER THE PACIFIC OCEAN.  THIS SUGGESTS THAT THE
TERRAIN OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA HAS TAKEN ITS TOLL ON THE CIRCULATION
AND REGENERATION IS UNLIKELY.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR A
GRADUAL WEAKENING WITH IGNACIO BEGINNING TO DISSIPATE IN 24 HOURS.    
 
THE SYNOPTIC REASONING HAS ESSENTIALLY REMAINED UNCHANGED.  A
MID-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING OVER NORTHERN MEXICO SHOULD CONTINUE TO
STEER THE DEPRESSION GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY. 
 
ALTHOUGH THERE REMAINS A POSSIBILITY OF THE CENTER EMERGING OFF THE
WEST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA...SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE
TOO COOL FOR SIGNIFICANT REGENERATION.

ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS MOVED WEST OF THE BAJA
PENINSULA THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ADDITIONAL LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND FLOODING...ESPECIALLY IN UPSLOPE AREAS. 
 
FORECASTER COBB/FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      27/0300Z 26.0N 111.9W    30 KT
 12HR VT     27/1200Z 26.4N 112.4W    30 KT
 24HR VT     28/0000Z 27.1N 113.0W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 36HR VT     28/1200Z 27.7N 113.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 48HR VT     29/0000Z 28.4N 114.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     30/0000Z 29.5N 115.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     31/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:57 UTC