ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION IGNACIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 21 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 PM PDT TUE AUG 26 2003 IGNACIO REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED THIS EVENING AS IT MOVES UP THE BAJA PENINSULA. THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY...HOWEVER SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM LORETO INDICATE THAT IT IS STILL OVER LAND AND NEARBY. SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES THAT A MID LEVEL CLOUD SYSTEM CENTER WITH SOME DEEP CONVECTION HAS MOVED OFF THE BAJA PENINSULA OVER THE PACIFIC OCEAN. THIS SUGGESTS THAT THE TERRAIN OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA HAS TAKEN ITS TOLL ON THE CIRCULATION AND REGENERATION IS UNLIKELY. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR A GRADUAL WEAKENING WITH IGNACIO BEGINNING TO DISSIPATE IN 24 HOURS. THE SYNOPTIC REASONING HAS ESSENTIALLY REMAINED UNCHANGED. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING OVER NORTHERN MEXICO SHOULD CONTINUE TO STEER THE DEPRESSION GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. ALTHOUGH THERE REMAINS A POSSIBILITY OF THE CENTER EMERGING OFF THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA...SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE TOO COOL FOR SIGNIFICANT REGENERATION. ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS MOVED WEST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ADDITIONAL LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING...ESPECIALLY IN UPSLOPE AREAS. FORECASTER COBB/FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 27/0300Z 26.0N 111.9W 30 KT 12HR VT 27/1200Z 26.4N 112.4W 30 KT 24HR VT 28/0000Z 27.1N 113.0W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 36HR VT 28/1200Z 27.7N 113.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 29/0000Z 28.4N 114.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 30/0000Z 29.5N 115.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 31/0000Z...DISSIPATED NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:57 UTC