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Hurricane IGNACIO


ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE IGNACIO DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT SUN AUG 24 2003
 
IGNACIO HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN...WITH A SMALL EYE EMBEDDED IN
VERY COLD-TOPPED CONVECTION...ALTHOUGH RECENT ENHANCED IR IMAGES
SHOW SOME WARMING OF THE CLOUD TOPS.  TRMM DATA SHOWED A 10 N MI
DIAMETER EYE WITH A WELL-DEFINED EYEWALL...AND FIRST-LIGHT VISUAL
PICTURES SHOW A CLOUD-FILLED EYE. DVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE 5.0 FROM
TAFB AND 4.5 FROM NESDIS AND KGWC. INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 90
KT. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS PROBLEMATIC SINCE IT IS NOT CERTAIN
WHETHER THE CORE WILL REMAIN OVER THE VERY WARM WATERS OF THE SEA
OF CORTES OR MOVE OVER THE TERRAIN OF THE BAJA PENINSULA. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST ALLOWS FOR A LITTLE MORE STRENGTHENING AND THEN
ASSUMES SOME INHIBITING INFLUENCE DUE TO LAND. HOWEVER...IF THE
CENTER REMAINS OVER OPEN WATER...IGNACIO COULD BECOME SIGNIFICANTLY
STRONGER.

THE MOTION HAS BEEN MOSTLY NORTHWARD OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.  A
MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER NORTHERN MEXICO APPEARS TO BE FILLING
AND DRIFTING NORTHWARD.  THEREFORE...DEEP-LAYER MEAN HEIGHTS ARE
EXPECTED TO RISE NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE HURRICANE.  THE NOGAPS
MODEL SHOWS A WEAKER RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF IGNACIO OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS...AND A MORE NORTHWARD TRACK THAN THE OTHER GLOBAL
MODELS.  THE GFS AND U.K. MET PREDICT A STRONGER RIDGE TO THE
NORTH...AND A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LIES
BETWEEN THESE TWO EXTREMES AND IS QUITE CLOSE TO THE GUNA
CONSENSUS.  THIS IS FAIRLY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS NHC TRACK...AND
KEEPS THE CENTER VERY NEAR THE EAST COAST OF BAJA.
 
FORECASTER PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      24/1500Z 23.3N 109.0W    90 KT
 12HR VT     25/0000Z 23.8N 109.5W   100 KT
 24HR VT     25/1200Z 24.4N 110.0W    95 KT
 36HR VT     26/0000Z 25.0N 110.5W    90 KT
 48HR VT     26/1200Z 25.7N 111.0W    80 KT
 72HR VT     27/1200Z 27.5N 112.0W    70 KT
 96HR VT     28/1200Z 29.0N 113.0W    60 KT
120HR VT     29/1200Z 30.5N 114.0W    60 KT
 
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:57 UTC